"The Logistics Failures Will Not Be Repeated" - Part Two

Note:  This is Part 2 of a Two Part Series Concerning Logistics Lessons Learned in The Israeli National Defense Forces (IDF).  You can read Part 1 here. 

This entry deals with an article I read which discussed the logistics failures of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) in the last Lebanon War.  I felt the article really applied to what I see as a common business cycle where a business sees success then begins feeling certain elements are not "core" to the business and logistics almost always becomes one of those items.  The business sheds / outsources / under invests in the logistics centers. Inevitably, something happens where logistics becomes a necessary requirement and the company finds out they no longer have the capabilities which they had originally and which may have actually been core to the success.  

Having been caught flat footed the business rushes to reinvest and the cycle starts all over again.  

The IDF found themselves executing this same cycle.  Prior to the Second Lebanon war they had stopped investment and training in the logistics forces, they were not seen as core and their capabilities atrophied to dangerous levels.  Once they went into Lebanon and the IDF literally had soldiers dying of thirst they realized how wrong they were.  This part of my two part article (Again, you can read part 1 here ) discusses the solutions. 

The first item they had to fix was the competency of the forces in terms of both training and equipment.  Due to under investment the logistics forces were the last to get equipment and the last to be invested in for training.  This was fixed and the "competency" level was raised to above 90%.  

A second and very interesting development was the organizational structure they adopted as a result of the learnings during the second Lebanon War.  The reorganization is described:

"Most importantly, following the war, the Logistics Corps was removed from the responsibility of the Ground Forces Branch (to which it had been subordinate a short while before) and once again, became subordinate to the GHQ Logistics Directorate. In addition, we established unified responsibility in the field of logistics – from the GHQ to the level of the individual soldier"

What they found was when the logistics corp was subordinate to the operational forces (ground forces) they were almost always going to be ignored or at the most they would receive just minor investments as they would always be considered "non-core".

In business we see this all the time in organizations where logistics is subordinate to a brand or a commercial part of the business.  Yes, there are great examples of enlightened marketing and commercial general managers who fully understand the competitive advantage of a great logistics team but mostly they under invest because they push all the money to brand, product development and advertising.  They develop a great product, generate huge demand but find their ability to move to market in a timely and efficient manner is limited. 

The IDF essentially bypassed this organization and had the Logistics Corps reporting to equally high levels in the organization. This sends the right signal to the commanders and not only gives logistics a "seat at the table" but actually makes them "equals"  at the table.  

Finally, the IDF established a policy whereby no plans for military action are created without detailed logistics plans built along side the war plans (read: Logistics plans built along side the commercial plans).  This made the ground commanders (read: Commercial General Managers) equally responsible for the logistics successes (and by default responsible for any failures) of an entire operation.  They stated:

"Beyond that, the logistics issue was incorporated in all IDF operational plans. Today, no plan is drawn and no exercise is conducted without fully incorporating logistics planning. During the Second Lebanon War, many IDF commanders did not consider logistic issues a part of their responsibility, mainly because they had become accustomed, over many years of low intensity combat operations in the territories, to a state where logistics support was delivered to them, all the way to the end units on the ground. Now, IDF commanders understand that as part of conducting combat operations, they must be responsible for logistic supplies on the ground, and that without logistics, their combat operations cannot be continued.”

Again, think how many businesses do not incorporate logistics into their overall product development plans or do not incorporate them early enough to matter.  When decisions are made in terms of size, channel distribution, packaging, final assembly etc is when logistics people should be at the table helping and providing input. I call this "Design for Logistics"™  Many times companies get the logistics group involved after all these decisions are made and find out they have developed a "Frankenproduct" which will clog existing logistics networks. 

Concluding Lessons:

There are so many lessons to be learned here by companies and here is my summary:

1. Understand logistics is core to what you do and can provide competitive advantage if you properly invest. 
2. Even if you outsource do not "throw it over the wall".  You need to manage and involved your outsourced partners as if they were part of your organization.
3. Involve Logistics groups at the very beginning of the design and product development phase in a method I call "Design for Logistics"™
4. Think about the organizational structure.  Whatever organizational structure you select ensure the leaders of logistics have equal say and are not subordinate to the commercial organization unless you are absolutely sure the commercial leader will not ignore or under invest in the logistics capabilities. 
5. Invest in training and development of the logistics groups just as you do the commercial side.  

It seems these lessons have to be learned over and over again and it is good to reemphasize them.  Thank goodness lives are not on the line in business as they are in the military so the cost of not learning these lessons are only measured in dollars versus lives.  However, if a company is going to grow and prosper, they ignore these lessons at their own peril.  

More on The Pickens Plan

Good interview with Boone Pickens about oil and oil independence.  I just warn all the readers that oil independence does not equate to cheap oil.  Oil and the refined products will always be priced at a world price.  If we get too cheap, it will just be exported.

I still think oil independence is something we should do.

ATA September Tonnage Report; AAR Rail Loadings

The ATA has issued their September tonnage report and the results are as expected - flat at best (increased.4% after an August decrease of .9%).  The most stunning statement in the report is:

"Compared with September 2011, the SA index was 2.4% higher, the smallest year-over-year increase since December 2009. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 3.6%."

The smallest increase since 2009 is not a good story for the transportation industry.  Combine this with the fact that inventories are somewhat inflated - meaning no real inventory restocking is about to happen - and you realize this year ended very flat for freight and freight movements.  Of course, we have been seeing this all along in our "unofficial" indices which I use to gauge freight demand.  A couple of instructive trends to look at from the graph:

ATA 9/2012 Truck Tonnage Graph

Coming out of the recession you can see the truck tonnage rise but really since the beginning of 2012 it has flattened out substantially.  Further, there is a little blip at the end of 2011 which I believe was essentially a "fear trade".  A "fear trade" was the beginning of the industry pushing hard to put the "fear of God" into shippers telling them if they do not sign up for premium costs then "when the economy turns" the carrier will abandon their freight.   This worked (like all fear trades) for a very short period of time however ultimately rational economics took over and the results are what you see above.

Rail tells a bit of a different story and it is clear the migration from truck to intermodal is occurring at a fast pace.  Market share of intermodal v. truck has to be increasing as I personally believe it has become the preferred mode wherever it can be applied.  It used to be truck was preferred then people would "look at" intermodal and now I believe it is the exact reverse.  Logistics Management magazine said in interviews with shippers at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) Conference - 2012 shippers where now calling intermodal the "go to" mode of freight.

AAR reports while carloads are decreasing in volume, intermodal (IM) is increasing for all major US railroads.  For week 42 (ending October 20, 2012) IM containers were up 6.1% yoy and 5.8% for the cumulative through week 42.  Trailer on Flat Car (TOFC) continues to show significant declines as the migration to containers continues.

Overall we are seeing a very flat freight market and one which shows no real signs of major pick up through the beginning of 2013. If GDP continues to rise at or around 2% and roughly 10% of that number is "non freight" (i.e., financial etc.) then we will see below 2% growth in freight for the foreseeable future.  This is far below the 3% most industry analysts believe is when the real "crunch" will occur.

Unless carriers decide to significantly shrink their business this will mean it will be far more about growing market share than it will be about grabbing more of a growing pie.

More On Same Day "Delivery Wars"

My readers know I have been blogging about this, with thoughts on what will work, for almost a week now.  I started with a post asking whether Amazon awakened the sleeping giant of Wal-Mart and also wrote about the inherent advantages of scale and dispersion that the United States Post Office possesses in this space.

Note: to follow this story on my blog as it develops make sure to click on the tag: Same Day Delivery.

SCdigest has now written about it (I must admit, I love when I "scoop" a professional journal!) and they are calling it the "same day wars".  Not sure I would use the war analogy but it is interesting they see it that way.

My experience has been same day shipping is more a "marketing gimmick" than reality.  How many people really cannot afford a quick trip to Wal-mart (which is open 24 hours a day mostly)?  Will they really pay $10 to avoid that trip?  I think same day shipping ads will draw eyeballs (which is good - creates sales) but when the customer is about to dispense with $10 or $20 extra dollars they will decide a quick car trip could be enjoyable!

Housing - Good News Bad News for Transportation

First, I want to be clear that one month's data does not make a trend however we all have to be very pleased with the housing numbers yesterday.  According to the Wall Street Journal,

"On Wednesday, the government reported that new home-building levels surged to a four-year high last month, amid a nearly 12% rise in new building permits. "

As we all know, housing drives a lot of activity or "velocity" in the economy because along with a house comes a lot of other ancillary purchases such as appliances, furniture, drapes etc.  Housing also is a "mood" indicator because, generally speaking, people do not buy houses unless they feel fairly stable about their economic situation.  For these reasons, and I am sure a lot more, having housing move like this is a fantastic sign.  The Wall Street Journal even went so far as saying this movement may vindicate all the maligned recent activity by the Fed.

This is also good for transportation - in a way.  Transportation always gains from housing.  It is that simple and quite frankly housing is almost a singular metric for transportation companies to look at when determining the macro movement of the economy.  The last huge "boom" in trucking came when the housing market was at a froth of excitement in 2004 - 2006.

Now, for the "bad news". Housing is also right up there with manufacturing as one of the highest employment substitutes for drivers.  Drivers can migrate from construction to semi-skilled manufacturing to driving pretty easily and when construction jobs jump, drivers tend to want to move to those jobs.  Why do that and not just stay with trucking?

Two reasons help explain this migration between careers.  First, the time at home factor is big.  If a driver can even come close to replicating their driving income while staying at home they will do that.  Second, there really is no "penalty".  Most jobs and careers there is a penalty for hopping around such as loss of seniority, pay or other benefits.  For the most part (yes there are a few perks for being senior but not many and they are not highly valued relative to time at home) a driver loses nothing by pivoting to construction as they know they can move back to driving anytime they want and they will be welcomed back with a hug and a thank you.

Keep your eyes on these numbers as they develop.  If this is the beginning of a real sustained increase in construction and we get anywhere near close to 800K to 1M starts next year then the driver shortage will exacerbate really quickly.

More on 3D Printing

I had recently written thoughts on 3D printing (3D Printing - Don't Reduce Costs - Eliminate Them) and how I thought this could revolutionize how products get to market.  There are a lot of great things about this technology which will improve our lives however I definitely had a logistics and transportation slant to my reporting.

Yesterday, Steve Faktor at Forbes wrote how 3D printing is also a big opportunity for HP to reinvent themselves [ and this technology].  Read more about this and keep abreast of this technology.  I assure you this technology will change our lives eventually.

Why Transportation Stocks Are So Important

In my last post I reported (and linked) to an article about transportation stocks and what the "warnings" mean which have been issued recently.  The graph below from the Wall Street Journal and this article really define why it is so important and why we need to follow these stocks not just because we are logisticians but because we follow the economy in general.

Graph from Wall Street Jounal

Macroeconomic Monday® - Mixed Results Last Week

Last week could have been a "Seinfeld" week where it was the week about nothing.  It was a very bad week (worst since June) for the stock market as people continue to anticipate poor earnings and forecasts for even slower earnings.  It then had some nuggets of macroeconomic data which essentially said things were "flat".

I do want to start with the Producer Price Index.  The PPI went up by 1.1% ("Core" PPI held flat) v. an expected value of .7%.  As can be seen in the graph below, this is a bounce back from the beginning of a decline.  It is difficult to see how a recession could be in the near future when there is such inflation at the PPI (unless you think the increase is due to speculators hoarding commodities:

FRED® PPI Index

This will be an interesting trend to watch to see if we continue to have inflationary pressure at the PPI level which ultimately will need to come into the CPI or will be a drag on corporate earnings.

Inventory to Sales Ratio:

The vaulted inventory to sales ratio was released on Monday October 15 so I thought I would include it in this week's report.  First, why is this number so important?  What it shows is whether companies are building inventory or are they lowering inventory.  If they are building inventory it is a signal that the economy is slowing since it usually takes a few months for companies to adjust to lower sales.  There is seasonality to these numbers and for sure they are not adjusted for prices (if prices go up the value  of the inventory goes up but the quantity does not) but it is still a great indicator to watch.

FRED® Inventory to Sales Ratio

The graph shows this has increased over the last few months and it had started coming down but this month it actually increased ever so slightly.  This is a clear indication the economy is "tilting" to slowing down and inventory is building.  What do companies do when inventory starts building?  They lay people off, slow down factories and slow down 2d and 3d tier purchases.

This is a key metric to follow and if you are not sure why just look at what happened during the recession - it ballooned.

Jobless  Claims:

Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected (339K v. 370k expected) however I am going to let these numbers "mature" before I make any conclusions.  There has been a lot of "noise" in these numbers lately so I am going to see some trends.  By the way, I do not subscribe to the conspiracy theories related to these numbers but rather understand there are real statistical reasons why the numbers are moving around.  Let's see how it develops in the next few weeks.

Transportation Data:

In the last couple of weeks many indices have shown the transportation freight is slowing dramatically and rates have not only stabilized but in some cases are showing year over year declines.  Transportation executives have "warned" already about slowing freight volumes and the inventory to sales ratio reported above would support the decrease in freight volumes in the future.  All in all the story is not great for the near future for freight volumes.  This report from Reuters a few weeks ago titled Dow Transports Raise Warning Flag For US Economy says it best:

"Transportation and logistics companies are also worried. At least seven of them - FedEx, Norfolk Southern, UTi Worldwide (UTIW.O), Swift Transportation Co (SWFT.N), Arkansas Best Corp (ABFS.O), XPO Logistics Inc (XPO.N) and Werner Enterprises Inc (WERN.O) have scaled back their profit forecasts in recent weeks. United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.N) led the pack when it cut its outlook in July."  

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and others who follow the transportation industry clearly are indicating a slowing transportation spend and all the macroeconomic data would support that theory.

Advantage:

Clearly the data is showing a continued advantage for the shipper.  This is another week of Slight Advantage: Shipper®.  Last week also reported this measurement so it is clear the extreme tightening of capacity and drivers and its effects on rates is being offset by the slowing economy and the potential for a slowing economy (yes, the negative feedback loop actually will effect this even more).

Could The Post Office Be The Big Winner in Same Day Delivery?

An interesting development in the "same day delivery wars" which has been brewing as of late with Amazon and Wal-Mart.  The key question is who is going to do this from a delivery standpoint and who can do it at a very low cost?

Already, the USPS gets something to you for about .45 cents which FEDEX may charge you $5.00 or more.  Granted, they get it faster however with just a small amount of pre-planning you can change that $5.00+ charge to .45.  Most of what FEDEX is charging us for is a premium for our inefficiency and lack of planning.

Enter the USPS in the same day shipping.  As we know, the infrastructure costs for same day shipping are massive (advantage Wal-mart over Amazon since Wal-Mart has essentially 4500 distribution centers) and thus usually make it economically impractical. The USPS has some interesting, already in place, advantages:

1. Huge infrastructure - generally an office in every town regardless of size
2. Already mandated to go to just about every house every day in the Country
3. Will pick up as well as delivery and usually without an appointment. 
4. If you are not home, the trip to the USPS is generally very short (FEDEX for example has pulled out of my small town.  If I am not home when a FEDEX shipment comes and I want it I have to drive 1/2 hour to get it.. my post office is less than 1 mile away)

With some sophisticated routing tools, the USPS could, in a town, sweep the town to pick up the deliveries, bring to their "cross dock" then conduct the deliveries at night.  In some cases they can incorporate the delivery into their already established routes and in others they can utilize the equipment which is just sitting anyway.

This should be fun to watch!

"The Logistic Failures Will Not Be Repeated" - Part 1

Note:  This is Part 1 of a Two Part Series Concerning Logistics Lessons Learned in The Israeli National Defense Forces (IDF)

I came across the this fascinating article which chronicles the poor performance of the logistics group within the Israeli National Defense Forces (IDF) during the 2d Lebanon war in 2006.  Literally, Israeli soldiers were suffering from dehydration due to a lack of drinking water in the Country right next to their own and one which they easily can beat militarily.  Brigadier General Itzik Cohen, the head of the Logistics Branch for the IDF's Technology and Logistics Division said the following about this horrendous situation:

"During the Second Lebanon War, there was no shortage of logistic items. We had sufficient inventories of food, water and ammunition. The problem was that the items did not reach the forces that needed them."

Translate this into a business problem which we see all the time:  The company has a better product and can readily produce it but the problem is they cannot get it through distribution to the customers who need it when  they need it (Availability of product is at least two dimensional:  Quantity and time).  Think about this in relation to the infamous "Black Friday" events.  There is a lot of demand, there is a lot of promotion (think of promotion as the invasion) but the company cannot get the product to the market.  Last year, one company even canceled orders admitting they would never get the product to market.

Why did this happen to a one of the most proficient militaries in the world?  We learn the issue is very similar to the problem in business. Here are some reasons cited in this article:

"In the summer of 2006, the IDF disbanded the divisional logistic groups that were responsible for resupplying combat divisions... The issue of logistics, so it seemed, was of low priority for commanders, and the result was reports of hungry and thirsty troops deep inside hostile territory."

Does that sound familiar?  Logistics is a "low priority" for commanders?  Translate this into business and think how many times logistics is an "afterthought" to  the people who generally run a consumer company (sales, marketing, finance and merchandising).  Of course, there are great companies, like Wal-Mart who fully understand logistics is in fact core to the success of the company.

The life cycle of a company's organizational structure relative to logistics is very similar to the experience cited in this article with the IDF.  This life cyle looks like the following:

1. Business is Going Well - All is in Balance
2. Times get tough - Cut "Non Core", Logistics is seen as "Non-Core"
3. Things start getting better
4. Product has high demand, logistics is under developed, sales and marketing say "If only logistics was better we could sell the product"
5. Company invests in logistics

After 5, the cycle starts all over again.  This is a common life cycle of a company and it appears a very common life cycle of a defense force. 

My next post will discuss how the IDF solved this problem with what appears to be some real "10X Solutions".

Has Amazon Awakened The Sleeping Giant? - Walmart Same Day Delivery

I think one thing a lot of industries and companies have regretted is taking on Walmart.  Circuit City tried, Toys 'R Us tried and others continue to try.  Little 'ole Amazon was sitting very nicely with a great business dealing with parcel delivery in a few days.  However, that was not good enough.

They now want to turn their vast and sophisticated network of distribution centers into same day fulfillment centers.  There are pros and cons to this and clearly it is a very expensive proposition.  Except for the most densely populated areas, same day delivery is cost prohibitive.  It is especially prohibitive if you have a normal central distribution point system.  Distribution centers like Amazon has are designed to service large service areas - like 250 mile radius and are too big to blanket the Country with them.

Enter Walmart and their "test" of same day delivery.

Walmart sees the Amazon plans and basically says, "I see your same day delivery and I raise you by 4,500 stores / "Distribution Centers".  The interesting part of a Walmart store is the consumer sees it as a retail store yet the smart people in Bentonville see them all as distribution centers.  Let's say the average radius around a store is 15 miles before you hit another store.  Given this (and I am sure the statistic is available.. this is my guess.. not counting the outlands / badlands etc) you can see the advantage Walmart has and will always have over Amazon in same day delivery.  This will remain true unless Amazon wants to go on a mind boggling spree of capital investment to build out stores.  My bet is if there truly is a market for same day delivery (which is very questionable) then Walmart wins before Amazon even gets on the field.

A lot of people have lost a lot of money betting against Amazon over the years however this endevor may be a "bridge too far" even for Amazon.  My advice:  Don't take on Walmart.  Find the white space between you and Walmart (as Amazon has done so nicely over the years) and dominate that space.

The war of final mile delivery is about to begin!

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Ryder Launches a New Blog - Called "Exchange"

One of the goals of the 10xLogistics® forum is to create an "open-source" for logistics and supply chain knowledge.  To do that I try to keep up with new Blogs and sources of information and then actively advertise them.

Ryder has launched a new blog called "Exchange".  While I am very skeptical of "corporate" blogs because I believe they generally are marketing gimmicks versus true open source sharing, I am willing to give this one a shot.  I would just say "buyer beware" as I cannot imagine they would ever blog openly about something which is not in their best interest even if it was in the reader's best interest to know.

Let's follow it and see where it leads us.

A Definition of Logistics Gone Bad

I recently came across the video which I think is supposed to talk about the huge benefits logistics plays in our economy. And, by this the video defines logistics as transportation (it is a lot more than that but for the most part, this video deals with transportation).

It is a good description of how things get from point A to point B however I could not for the life of me think of a worse example to use:  Shipping bottles of water!!  Unless you are shipping water from a location of plenty to a drought stricken area, this is the worst example I can think of (except for maybe shipping concrete over long distances).



 Bottled water is a perfect example of something which should be created extremely close to the point of consumption ( I even think this video shows a route from Chicago to the West Coast).  Whenever a supply person sees that type of route they should be asking why are we shipping this in the first place.

Get the water locally, filter it, and bottle it locally and get it to local stores!  It is as simple as that! It is cost effective, it is "green" and it is simple.

As I have always said, don't just reduce costs, eliminate them!

September CASS Freight Index - Year over Year Decline

I will take a day to digest these numbers however the CASS Index is out for September and the results are mixed.  Increase month over month is attributed to a bump in activity to avoid a potential longshoreman's strike and even with that the Year over Year numbers for shipments has declined.

Another tidbit in the report is the feeling that inventory levels are elevated and the retailers are sitting on a lot of product which supports my assertion in my last post Macroeconomic Monday® that the sales to inventory levels will go down and will continue to show advantage to the shipper for freight rates and bidding.  (Of course, in reality, it advantages no one as lower sales to inventory means sales are down and the shipper's business is less healthy - I use these terms only in relation to the carrier - shipper relationship).

More to follow after I look at this in more depth.

Source: CASS FREIGHT SYSTEMS

Macroeconomic Monday®

Last week was a heck of a week for the macroeconomic outlook for both the world and the US economy.  As everyone who reads this blog knows, I report on this as I firmly believe the macroeconomic outlook is at least as much, and probably more, impact on the logistics industry than just about any other factor.

Unemployment:

First, there is good news on the unemployment front. Conspiracy theories aside, it is clear unemployment is coming down and participation is going up.  The good news, for the younger workers, is the long term demographic trend is more people retire which opens up more jobs for the younger workers.

As provided by Northerntrust.com

The graphs on the left from the BLS and provided by Northerntrust show the unemployment rate going down and the long term unemployment rate going down.

Both the ISM manufacturing and the ISM non-manufacturing indices were up above expectations  which show the economy is still "limping" along but it is, in fact, moving forward.  Most expect GDP to grow by less than 2% this year and be somewhere close to 1.25% to 1.75%.

GDP Analysis
This GDP number is very instructive as most in the transportation industry have said the "big capacity crunch" will come when GDP is at 3% or over.  These GDP predictions show we are far from this capacity crunch "red line" and therefore shippers should be fairly aggressive in their purchasing methodology.  FTR had reported coming into the year that they expected GDP to be 2.5% to 3% and at 3% we would hit a major capacity crunch.  Clearly, we will be 1/2 of that number.

Using these numbers, Truckgauge.com is using this data to say the driver shortage and the somewhat fabricated capacity shortage will remain not at a high enough level to "cause undo stress on the transportation system".

Consumer Credit
The most surprising number in the reports last week was the consumer credit number.  It looks like people have started feeling comfortable running up the debt levels again (which is not a good thing).  Consumer credit was up over $18bl which was significantly more than expected.  I say this is not a good thing because I read two things into this number:

1. People are living on the edge.  A little slow down here or there and they have to go to credit to make things work.
2. If people are already using credit to this level, a bit more of a slowdown (which is likely) will result in a collapse of household balance sheets which was a core driver of the 2008 financial crisis. 

The slowing of the economy and the fact that it never seems to get off of first base is partly due to the repair of household balance sheets.  Give a family an additional $1,000 and in the past few years most would use it to pay off debt.  That helps balance sheets but does nothing for the economy.  It is a short term hit but a good long term trend.  These consumer credit numbers, if they continue, show that good long term trend is reversing.  We shall have to see how it continues. 

ADVANTAGE?

One of my additions to this report will be a simple rating deciding which side the numbers favored.  we will have 5 potential ratings:  Advantage carrier, Slight Advantage carrier, Neutral, Slight Advantage Shipper, Advantage Shipper.   While people may argue where we are today, I think it is clear the arguments are centered around a Neutral rating.  It swings a little here and there but for now things are balanced,  Even the top executives in the trucking industry will say the capacity crunch is coming versus is here.  So, we start essentially in the middle.

This week's statistics show "Slight Advantage: Shipper"® (I will start summarizing the data concerning which direction the economic numbers move the shipper / carrier needle).  A GDP number below 2%, the growth of credit (which eventually will need to be paid off) are showing the economy slowing.  The one positive is the jobs report so that is why this week was only a slight advantage in the direction of the shipper.  

Look Ahead:

We will soon get the new sales / inventory numbers which will really be telling concerning the potential of a "restocking" of inventory levels (which we in transportation love even though it is a temporary boost).  As a reminder, below was the last release graphed.  It shows we have flopped around the 1.25 level for most of this recession and had a bit of an increase at the beginning of this year. 

Inventory / Sales ratio: US Census

 Remember, going into this year most had thought it was the year of a recovery and 2.5% to 3% was the expected GDP.  Given this it was natural to think the inventories would increase in preparation for future sales.  This is the second year in a row where the forecasters were wrong and so I anticipate people will not get fooled again and this number will actually decrease as businesses will be a bit timid to increase inventory in anticipation of any future sales.  If the restocking does not occur (as I anticipate) then the advantage will continue to swing to the shipper. 

Value Chain or Supply Chain

A fantastic discussion over at Supply Chain Index on the measurable differences between a "Supply Chain" and "Value Chain" (Value Chain vs Supply Chain).  Most use these terms interchangeably and this blog post really has given me cause for thinking about these terms. I even realized I did not have a tag or label for "Value Chain" which shows I thought of them as synonyms; Which they clearly are not.

Abby Mayer

Just as "logistics" has morphed into "supply chain" "supply chain" is now morphing into "value chain" in our industry lexicon.  However this blog post makes us think this over.

I am starting to think we have to reemphasize that these three terms are three distinct elements of the overall "cash to cash" cycle and getting goods to market.



Great job by Abby Mayer. Twitter: @indexgirl.

Supply Chain Index - A must read Blog and Twitter Handle: @SCInsightsLLC

CSCMP 2012 Was A Huge Success - On to CSCMP 2013 in Denver

My blogging has been slow to non existent this week due to the great Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) 2012 Annual Global Conference in Atlanta.  However, I did "burn up" the twitterverse this week (see tweets for logisticsexpert and search for #cscmp2012) as I tried to keep everyone up to date on the happenings at the conference.

It was a fantastic conference and I really enjoyed running track 6 - Energy and Infrastructure.  We had great presentations from Walter Zimmermann, the Kansas City Southern Rail, the Environmental Defense Fund, The Port of Long Beach, Smartway (EPA Partnership with Industry) along with case studies on natural gas implementations which occurred at two major shippers.  These successful implementations are truly the "win-win-win" where the companies have lowered costs, done great things for the environment and have contributed to our nation's move to a domestic fuel source.

Two highlights of the conference were to hear T. Boone Pickens speak (Read about the Pickens Plan here) and I actually was able to attend a luncheon with him.  What a fantastic person and his work to get this country an affordable domestic fuel source should be praised by everyone in the country.

I also was thrilled and excited to see Erik Wahl (The Art of Vision) motivate us about creativity and innovation in a very unique way - he paints incredible pictures during his talk!  Below is a Youtube video of him (not the one at CSCMP) and you will immediately see what I mean.

I have been attending these conferences for years and this was the best one I have ever been too. The energy, excitement and pertinent topics were all fantastic.  I am already looking forward to Denver 2013!

3D Printing - Don't Reduce Costs - Eliminate Them!

You have heard me say over and over again that the ultimate goal is not just cost reduction it is the actual elimination of costs.  Think e-books and iTunes® and think of all the costs which just were  totally eliminated.  No one figured out how to "reduce" the costs of shipping books rather they just eliminated the shipment all together.

An early trend I am watching now is the idea of 3D printing.  This may even be too early to call it a "Mega-trend" however I think it is something we should be aware of.  Just like the elimination of shipments of things which have been digitized (books and music) the next frontier are physical "hard" parts.

At the end of this post is a neat little video which explains this technology.  Think of it this way:  If you need to make something which is made out of one material you could just load the material, load the digital specs and the printer does the rest. The key for Logistics people is the part is printed at the point of use and on demand.  This has two implications.

First, as this gets better and better and costs come down for the machines more and more product will be made this way.  This means less product is made at some far away factory and shipped.  This will result in a continued headwind on shipping volumes.

Second, this will also dramatically reduce or even eliminate inventory.  No need to stock 30 days supply of something when you can "print on demand".  This also puts downward pressure on freight demands as less and less distribution will be needed (also has huge implications for warehousing).

3D Printers from Tasman Machinery

To the left you can see what these machines look like.  I just found these off the Tasman Machinery website (no endorsement just a good picture).  Like all electronic machines during their infant stage there is a lot more development to happen and I am sure it will happen.

Here is a picture of actual wearable shoes made with 3D printers and above is a picture of a model / replica of a ship made with 3D printers.

You may look at these products and say there is nothing to worry about as it will take a long time for these types of products to be brought into production.  Of course, I would have to remind you this is what people say about all disruptive and new technologies at the beginning.

 I think this will develop rapidly and this could be the "new normal" for a lot of manufacturing of sub assemblies and parts.  As I said above, this will eliminate the need to ship this product and, of course, lessen the demand for transportation.  One can clearly imagine a day when you walk into a store, need a basic product and rather than the hassle of inventory and distribution, the store clerk will just "print on demand" for you in the store.  Huge implications for freight costs and demand, inventory and warehousing and S&OP processes. 

According to a blog post by Richard Gottlieb at Global Toy News we may be at a tipping point as it relates to the use of 3D printing in the toy industry.  He rightfully highlights the implications and benefits of this technology by saying:

• If you own enough 3D printers, why would you need to own any inventory?  You could print out on demand.  It’s JIT (Just in Time) in its truest sense.
• If you can print out small batches without the need for molds or factories?  Anyone can enter the marketplace with a new item.  The only cost is for the material.  
• If the need for factories and engineers declines, what happens to people who currently hold those jobs?

Again, this is pre "mega trend" stage but watch it closely as these types of technologies have a way of taking off.

Below is a great little video explaining what this is all about:

Truckload Capacity "Readily Available"

Over at the Transplace blog they provide some analysis on the most recent Morgan Stanley release.  The words which caught my eye were they now expect truckload capacity to be "readily available" for the remainder of the year.

This has been the trend for a few months with some artificial "greenshoots".  While I have been predicting this for the better part of the summer I still believe the issue is companies are really reluctant to bring back inventory.  They would much rather error on the side of "running out" than stocking too much and that means less freight is moving.

Get Ready for "Macroeconomic Monday®"!

I will be starting a new feature this week called "Macroeconomic Monday®" where I will be reviewing the macroeconomic trends from the previous week and what is up coming.  I will also add commentary as it relates to the logistics industry.  Hopefully this will become a "must read" for you every Monday morning.

You can always search for it on my blog by going to the label "Macroeconomic Monday®" and look for it on twitter at #macmonday® (without the ®).

Getting Natural Gas Right from The EDF

The Environmental Defense Fund really puts out good science.  They are truly non partisan and report the facts as they are known.  I just read this posting called "Getting Natural Gas Right" and I was both intrigued and encouraged.  The conclusion is simple (and those who take ideological positions on science will not like it):  If large amounts of methane are released into the atmosphere due to leakage, the use of Natural Gas will be worse, not better, than what we are doing today.

However, there is great news. If prudent measures are taken to ensure the proper drilling, transportation, storage and combustion then natural gas becomes a fantastic fuel to help us move to a low carbon future.

I like science.

Elena Craft Will Be Speaking At Track 6 - CSCMP 2012

As my readers know I am hosting Track 6 (Click on Track 6 here and see the tracks objectives)  at the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals annual conference in Atlanta next week.  This track will cover all aspects of Energy and Infrastructure issues facing both our industry and the globe.  We have expert speakers from all facets of the discussion and I can assure you we will challenge the status quo thinking!

I am especially excited to announce to have Elena Craft on our panel. Elena Craft has had a stellar career as a health scientist for the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) and I am proud to have her on our panel.  I have linked to her biography above and I would also encourage you to read her great blog postings at The EDF News and Blogs Section.  She will challenge us to think differently about what we are accomplishing.

Her presentation is on Monday afternoon, October 1, 2012 in Track 6 at 4:45.

I am looking forward to seeing you all there!!

Walter Zimmermann

Turning points: United Icap's Walter Zimmermann - Risk.net

An interesting biography of our first speaker at CSCMP Track 6 - Energy and Infrastructure.  Looking forward to seeing you all there!

Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals Annual Conference

I really am looking forward to CSCMP 2012 in Atlanta this year.  I am hosting Track 6 - Energy and Infrastructure where we will have a very robust and exciting discussion on the role energy and infrastructure play in your supply chain - and it is a big role.

Energy costs can consume almost 40% of your total transportation cost structure and of course the Country's infrastructure can decide how efficiently you can get goods to market. We will cover everything from the macro economic outlook for energy to two great case studies on how to convert your fleet to natural gas and alternative fuels.

The exciting part of this is we will cover the spectrum.  Do not expect to have 8 sessions where people all agree (I remember a saying "If everyone in the room thinks alike, someone is not thinking).

We start with a well known economist on the overall macro outlook for energy in the US:  Walter Zimmermann (A very interesting short biography).  He has been seen on CNBC and other national news shows and has a very interesting and data driven view on the potential for energy independence and what is happening in the energy markets today.

Following Walter we will have multiple presentations from Rail executives, scientists and practitioners on what is happening in the world of energy and infrastructure.  It will be a very exciting and timely topic.

I look forward to seeing everyone at the conference and let's use this to really challenge our thinking, learn and make our industry better!

Bid More Frequently, Not Less

I am not sure how I totally missed this great article in DC Velocity entitled "Go Short" however I am glad I ran into it now.  I think it is spot on and a great contrarian view from today's prevailing wisdom which is you need to be a "partner" in times of tight capacity.  Partner generally is a euphemism for a trucking sales person asking you to give them above market rates to secure some nebulous and not guaranteed insurance policy for capacity in the future.

As this article rightfully points out, this guarantee is anything but that and generally will not stand even after you paid that insurance policy cost.  The article states:

"At the heart of the study's findings is a fact that most who ship and haul for a living already know: that no truckload contract, regardless of duration, can force a shipper to honor a volume commitment, or a carrier to honor a capacity commitment. Because trucking is considered "derived demand"—meaning supply doesn't react unless demands are put on it—a carrier can easily change capacity, and the rate it charges, if it doesn't secure enough high-yield freight on a lane and finds better opportunities elsewhere. In many cases, it will stop accepting freight on a lane altogether."

As prices in the market change and as your rates become "stale" the carrier can just stop accepting tenders. They will say to you their "network has changed" and they can no longer support this lane.  It happens all the time and it happens with the best and most ethical carriers.  I am not accusing them of malpractice but rather I am just accepting what is and this article articulates it well.

This article advocates going shorter on your bid cycle, perhaps one year, and ensuring rates and lanes do not "get stale".  Interestingly enough, despite all the discussion from the carrier base about "long term partnerships" this appears to be in their best interest as well.

It is important to outline another extreme which is highlighted in the article.  Grough Grubbs, SVP of Distribution and Logistics for Stage Stores says:

"Our rating is dynamic based on competitive bidding, rather than an annual volume bid. This removes the dilemma of 'stale' bids," said Gough Grubbs, Stage's senior vice president, distribution/logistics. "As more competitive bids come in for certain lanes, incumbent carriers are given the opportunity to revise their rates in our system if they choose to. If not, they drop down in the pecking order for future loads."

This certainly looks and feels like every day is a new day and the bid cycle essentially never stops.  While this ensures market prices every day you would need to identify the trade off of this strategy with the benefits of some sort of stability.  That trade off equation would be different for each company and you would have to look at it in the context of your own competitive environment.  

One of the concerns I have written about many times is the fear the coordinated industry effort to "scare" shippers by talking about capacity shortfalls and rising prices (a week does not go by where a CEO of a trucking company feels a need to "remind" us that lowering capacity will result in higher prices) would result in the industry actually reinforcing to shippers that this is a commodity business.  Again, I do not believe it is a commodity however if all you talk about is the commodity behavior of the pricing scheme then you are essentially educating your customers to treat you as a commodity.

This article, and certainly Mr. Grubbs has taken it to the fullest measure.

 

Get Ready - CSCMP 2012 in Atlanta

Those who have been in the industry a while know the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) is the premier professional organization for our industry.  From practitioners to academics, this is the organization to belong to if you want to know what is happening in our industry, networking with top individuals / thought leaders and keep an eye on the mega-trends occurring in supply chain and logistics.

This year I have the honor to co-host Track 6 - Energy and Infrastructure at the Annual Global Conference in Atlanta from September 30 to October 3. This track will have exciting discussions concerning the overall energy marketplace right to how to specifically implement Natural Gas and alternative energy strategies.  The track objectives, as stated in the program:

"Managing a sustainable supply chain is no longer just a "cool" thing to do; it is expected by the consumer and is an extension of the brand and product being sold. This track will highlight best-in-class practices and emerging technologies to reduce your carbon footprint, enhance your corporate image, and positively impact the bottom line"

I highly encourage you to put this on your appointment calendar!

Today, I will highlight the first session we will have which is from 9:45 to 11:15 on Monday, October 1, 2012 entitled: Dispelling the Myths of Energy Independence by Walter Zimmermann, Senior Technical Analyst, United ICAP.  The description of this session is:

"US energy independence is a goal that can never be achieved due to the global nature of the economy and the ability to export energy quickly to the higher priced markets. There is a lot of talk about building a stronger economy while at the same time lowering energy prices. This speaker will explain why we can’t have both, and why the financial markets are what actually drive energy price trends. He will reveal what can be done to lower energy costs, and describe how seasonal price cycles can be employed to lock in prices near their annual lows."

This will be an exciting session as it will challenge a lot of the current thoughts which exist in our industry about how we are on the beginning of a wave of cheap energy and energy independence.  Mr. Zimmermann speaks how the laws of supply and demand are not driving fuel costs but rather the "financialization" of the energy markets are really driving the costs. This session will really challenge you to think different.

Mr. Zimmermann is an exciting and dynamic speaker which will make this session very exciting.  Bring your questions!

If you would like to see him in action, take a look at this clip from CNBC:




Here is a more recent interview:

More Data on Slowing ..

As reported at the Transplace blog, Stifel Nicolaus data supports the idea of a slowing environment.

Cass August Index is Out - What Shall We Learn?

The Cass Freight Index is out for August and the results are not surprising for those of us who stay close to this market every day.  Both expenditures and freight volumes have decreased month over month in August signaling a dramatic slowdown and one during a time when some would expect the seasonal surge to start.  Remember the idea of seasonal surcharges?

Cass Freight Index

Year over Year and Month over Month, shipment volume has decreased 1.1%.  For expenditures, we are still up year over year by 3.8%, mostly driven off of irrational fear instilled in the market during the first quarter (the reality was there was no need for those rate increases however some bought into the fear driven by some industry leaders) but month over month the expenditures are down 1.1%.  Some other points made by the people at Cass:

• There have been two straight months of freight contraction
• This is the third time this year, freight volumes are down year over year
• Inventory levels are increasing beyond what is needed for the sales volume in the economy. 
• The report says to expect rates to stay firm - I disagree with this and I think the empirical evidence will show this not to be true. 

The report continues to say driver pay and fuel is driving higher costs for the carriers.  Of course, we know higher fuel costs are burdened on the shipper, not the carrier, due to fuel surcharges.  I also have not seen a massive increase in driver pay however we shall see if that starts creeping in.  The report says these increased costs have not made it through to the shipper in rates however the long term trend is the costs are passed on.  The average operating ratio (OR) has decreased (margin increasing) for the better part of a year now.  This means either the carriers are getting great operational efficiencies to offset these cost increases (that would be a good and competitive thing to occur) or the costs are being past through.  Impossible for the carrier costs to increase and the OR rate to decrease without one of the two above occurring.  As always, it probably is some of each.  

So, here are my thoughts for shippers:

• Despite a somewhat coordinated effort across the industry to reduce capacity it appears demand is decreasing even faster.  This is a message I have been projecting for the last 6 months and the evidence here continues to reinforce this general message. 
• If you are a shipper who was frightened into taking increases at the beginning of the year you may want to review that decision and perhaps run a bid event.  You most likely are paying out of market prices.
• The idea that Q3 and Q4 is a bad time to bid may be an idea which is dying.  Carriers should be worrying about where the volume in Q12013 will come from now and may be a bit hungry. 
• This report continues to reinforce the incredible volatility of the market and the fact every shipper needs to have a very detailed supply base management program to monitor these changes and leverage them when needed. 

For carriers I believe:

• May be time to stop a lot of the blustering and start building true relationships with your shippers to lock in shrinking volume.  Getting business out of fear is not always a good or defensible long term strategy. 
• Offer value added services to ensure you bring more than just transport to the mix.  Shippers need overall logistics and supply chain partners to make it through slow times. 
• Continue to drive exceptional efficiencies.  As an industry we need to ensure that logistics expenses as a % of GDP declines.  That is the true measure if our industry is adding value or not.  Let's focus on the right things. 
• Continue to drive hard for increased fuel mileage and sustainability objectives.  This benefits everyone. 

In conclusion, the signal this report is sending is things are slowing down and the pace may be accelerating.  Get ready for a tough Q42012 and Q12013.

I wish I had better news. 

Continuing on Cube Utilization - Secondary Cube

What if Watermelons were Square?

Ask yourself - What if Watermelons Were Square?

I find just about everyone gets the idea that putting more stuff in a trailer will generally reduce your overall costs because you will use less trailers.  It is that simple.  Miles per unit sold goes down and with that the cost of transportation.  Further, your sustainability goals are met far quicker because less miles means less emissions.  The easiest way to reduce the cost of anything is just to stop using it.  Concentrating on cube utilization accomplishes this.

However, for all the people who know this I find a lot less worry about secondary cube or what some call "liquid cube".  This actually takes into account the utilization of the cartons or packaging of product you are loading in the truck.  Think of it this way:  You may load 1,000 cases of xyz product into your trailer, look at it, and say "wow, did I cube out that trailer"!  What you may miss though is the cube utilization of the cases is horrible.  Open the cases and you may find a lot of air due to bottles being curved, sizing relative to the case not done properly, or just packaging which is too big for its contents.  If you are able to solve that problem (per my previous post, most likely with the marketing and merchandising folks) you may find you can put a lot more product in that same trailer.

So, the journey continues... Once you think you have cubed the trailer, start looking at secondary cube and start solving that problem.  Keep packing them tight and ELIMINATE emissions and cost; don't just reduce it.

(Answer to above question:  A lot more would fit in a trailer - after all, the rind is merely nature's packaging!)

Packaging and Merchandising Vs. Logistics Efficiency?

Conducting what I call a "walk around" (my wife calls it shopping) in the grocery store this weekend started my mind wandering to ideas about packaging and shelf space.  Why would a logistician be thinking of these stereotypical marketing and merchandising topics you may ask?  The answer is simple:  There is a battle going on in the retail world within companies and it is the battle of the logistician versus the merchandiser.

Just look at the picture below:

A merchandiser probably sees nice colors to attract the shopper's eyes, good shelf space display, multiple rows of the product to dominate the shopper etc.  A logistician sees boxes which are too big for the product which is in them thereby reducing useful cube in a trailer. If you look to the far end of the aisle you will see round and curvy shaped bottles.  The logistician thinks these attract the eye but kill you on cube (both primary and secondary) utilization.  So, the question is who wins?  To this point in my career the merchandiser has won but that is changing with three key changes in the external environment.

First, transportation costs have become so high people are no longer just deferring to the merchandiser.  They really need to make a solid business case why that curvy bottle which kills cube utilization is going to drive sales.  Otherwise, we will move to optimizing cube.

Second, shelf space is no longer such a driver of consumer preference.  When the entire concept of shelf space importance was developed it was the way to advertise to an uneducated consumer.  The consumer "learned" about your product by having the product catch her eye then have her read the box (another more practical reason why boxes are so big - need real estate for the writing and graphics) and this would be a major driver of her buying decision (The old adage there are two moments of truth: One when she decides to buy the product and two when she uses the product for the first time).  However this has all changed.  Many come to the store already knowing what they will buy as they have researched it prior to arriving. Or, if they have not, rather than read the box they will whip out their smartphone and read about it on line (the smart merchandiser will have a QR code on the box so it can be scanned).  This is a mega trend for how people shop which is growing and not shrinking.  The advent of the smart phone means you no longer have a self contained space to barrage the consumer with colors and splash - the consumer can "virtually" leave your space, find the information they want and need, then reenter your space without you even knowing it.

Third, as stores become smaller (especially if you follow the mega trend of consumers moving back to the cities which changes the entire dynamic of retailing) shelf space is shrinking.  With shelf space shrinking you need to figure out how to get your product in front of the consumer, get it to be interesting AND make it small and compact (The tyranny of the "OR" - Good to Great, Jim Collins).  For example, if you make laundry detergent and you only get 1' across on a shelf.  You can take that up with two giant bottles of non-concentrated detergent or you can concentrate it immensely and get 6-8 bottles across.  I personally believe more is better and the the signal the consumer will get is if there is that many on the shelf it must be because people are buying it - perhaps I should try it.   This trend supports and is in harmony with the needs of the logistician.

So, what does this mean for the logistician?  It means you need to get upstream in the packaging design, merchandising and manufacturing of your product.  Get involved in these decisions on the front end and influence the decisions which will meet the needs of the marketer and merchandiser and will also play nicely with cube utilization and transportation costs.  The lowest cost transportation is the transportation you do not use and better cube and better secondary cube (a topic I will address in another post) drives the elimination (not just reduction) of transportation cost.  This means you need to be intimately involved in the Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) process and if your company does not have one you should lead and develop one.

I have always said the great logistician spends as much time on these topics as they do on working with carriers.  The work with carriers tends to be fun part however this is where the majority of your cost savings will come.

Reflections on Labor Day

Our industry, the logistics and supply chain industry, should reflect more on this great day than just about any other industry.  We are built on the benefits of the work labor does every day.  The number of truck drivers, loaders at rail and air ramps, workers at ports, warehousemen etc. etc. really do drive this industry.  I have not done the analysis however the ratio of labor (stereotypical "blue collar") to "management" or managers has to be one of the largest of any industry.   Think of it, for every truck there is at least one driver!

This industry also is what moves America.  Nothing is built, bought, imported or exported without going through some channel in this industry; and most go through multiple channels in our industry.

So, with that I do reflect on this great industry and the great people who work in it.  I hope they get to spend time with their families - although the nature of the industry is many will not.

Thank you for all you do for your companies, this industry and the United States of America!

Operating Cash Flow (OCF) - Should it Be The "King" Metric?

In deference to the great writing at Supply Chain Digest by David Schneider (David K. Schneider and Company) I will not rewrite the premise of the article he wrote over at SCD titled "The One Best Supply Chain Metric". I will only say I highly encourage you to click on the link above and go to the article and read it if you are even remotely interested in a different metric to follow.

Now, on to my opinion (hopefully you have linked over and read the article):  Operating cash flow is a "king" metric or an "outcome" metric as some may call it.  It is the ultimate scorecard.  Are you truly making real money (i.e., Cash) or are you making "paper money" (through income statement shenanigans) and burning through cash?  Remember, the only thing which allows you to reinvest in your business is the generation of cash.  Measure cash in a big way.

I get very nervous when I hear companies want to "push out payables" not because I think it is just wrong to do but also because of the signal it sends which is their cash from operations is probably going down so they are grabbing a one time cash infusion from suppliers.

Ultimately, cash from operations will determine the success or failure of your business because ultimately you will run out of financing (of which pushing out payables is essentially that - you are financing through your suppliers) and investing options.  When that happens, if you are not generating cash from operations, you will find your "Emperor has no clothes".

The Divergence of the Dow Transports and the Dow

As if on queue from my posting yesterday, Mark Hulbert  (read all his stories here) writes on marketwatch.com about the divergence between the Dow Industrial index and the Dow Transports.  He shows a graph which is very interesting and may help answer the questions I raised yesterday when I asked how the economy (as measured by the stock market) could be so high yet freight growth appears to be crawling along. His graph (reproduced below) shows for some time now the Dow Transports have lagged the overall Dow.  I suspect if you put in the S&P500 you will see this as well.

Dow Transports (in Red) Versus Dow 

So, what does this tell us?  Mark believes it may signify the leading indicator of an overall slowdown in the economy (which of course does not bode well for the transportation industry).  However an interesting point which I had not followed before is his point around the divergence or the relative performance of the Dow Transports to the Dow overall.

He claims (as apparently it is in Dow Theory) that it is precisely this divergence which indicates the slowdown not specifically the fact that that transports are slowing down.

Perhaps it is best to think about it this way, like a good race horse, the Dow is executing one last gasp then it will stop where as the other race horse (i.e., the transports) already crossed the finish line and is stopped.  I don't know if that is a good analogy or not however I will set a favorite to always compare the Dow transports to the Dow overall now and let's see how his analysis plays out.

Where is The Freight? - Cass Reports a Slowdown

The Cass Freight Index report for July 2012 was somewhat anti-climatic for those of us who follow freight and knew we were in the depth of the great slowdown of 2012.  The "phone bank" report (which measures the direction of phone calls from a fictional transportation manager's desk) reported far more incoming calls from carriers looking for freight than outbound calls searching for trucks and this has been true for at least two months now.

OK, I admit that is not a scientific index however if you are close to the business and have a grasp on that general topic it is a highly effective predictor of freight.

Cass Freight Index - July 2012

We see from this index that essentially expenditures have leveled off really since June of 2011 with just a little bump at the beginning of Q2 in 2012.  I attribute both years' early bumps as price / volume "hype" and not reality.  Each of the last two years has begun with a "great hope" of where rates and the economy is going only to become disappointing by summer and a steadying of rates.  A good and experienced transportation manager will see this trend and ensure they do not buy into the early year hype every year.

At the beginning of every year the transportation company sales people will show up with all sorts of data to tell you "this is the year" where we will hit a massive capacity crunch so you better "pay up now" to be taken care of later.  A great story which makes for great industry journalism however the empirical evidence suggests it is, in fact, all hype and those who remain calm in the face of the story will be better off.

A key question though is how can all these companies (shippers) report great earnings, the market is very high ( Dow at 13,175.64 as of this writing) and yet the shipments and movement of goods is stagnant?  I have a few theories (I freely admit these are theories however the data is showing this to be more and more true).

First, the economy is a more services and financial economy than it is a "things" economy.  While we still consume the manufactured goods we generally do not make them.  This means an entire portion of the former economy shipments is gone and that is inbound to manufacturing.  The outbound is still there however the inbound is gone.  The inbound freight is in China and Mexico and other low cost countries.  Those who say they love being in trucking because their jobs cannot move overseas are wrong.  The inbound jobs have moved overseas along with the inbound freight.

This of course follows the manufacturing base so if manufacturing truly does return to the United States (the jury is out on this) then the inbound will follow back.

Second, the great work on sustainability, minimizing packaging, routing efficiencies etc have all led to being able to move the same amount of goods with lesser number of vehicles.  This movement is good for all of us in the world however it does decrease the raw demand for trucks.  Just think of televisions. If the economy sells a million T.V.s this year (a made up number just to illustrate the point) they are all about 1" thick.  10 years ago if 1 million T.V's were sold they all were about 3 feet deep (packaged).  That is a lot of trucks.  

There is not only minimization of the product size but there is also the elimination of the physical product (think e-books. iTunes for CDs etc.).

So, my conclusion is you cannot compare the GDP numbers of today relative to prior year GDP numbers as if there is a straight correlation between the level of GDP and the amount of goods moving in terms of cube size (which is the driver of number of boxes needed). Clearly there is some kind of correlation but it is not as direct as it would have been 10 - 15 years ago.  The economy can grow with less physical product moving.

Finally, the lesson learned of the last two years is clear: "Be Not Afraid"! at the beginning of the year.  Don't buy the hype, be patient, watch the data and let the economy play out.  You get no credit  (regardless of what the sales person tells you) for being an early mover on rate increases.

Looking at Transportation The Way We Look at China's Economy

I have read a lot recently about how you get the real GDP numbers out of China.  Don't bother with the government statistics rather just go look at the piles of coal at the electric power plants.  As China has said their economy is doing fine, observers of coal piles have seen them grow and grow.  Why is this important?  The growth of the coal piles signifies a massive slow down in the demand for electricity which, in turns, means factories are idling.  When factories idle, you have lower GDP.  Voila!  It may not be scientific however doing econometrics with raw data which is flawed is a waste of time.

So, I thought I would use this way to look at transportation and I did not like what I saw.  Driving through Chicago yesterday passing by the big intermodal yards I saw stacks and stacks of 53' containers which clearly had been "mothballed".  They were not at the yard "in transit" rather they were in the yard and parked.  They were stacked high and tight.  This indicates carriers are parking containers which clearly indicates a massive slowdown in freight pretty close to the time where it should be gearing up for the holidays.

All indications are the economy has softened dramatically and this is just another indicator.  I may patent this methodology, go to Chicago every week and take a picture, compare them against previous weeks like you would a bar graph.  My guess is this would be just as good as some of the other "analysis" I have seen.