The End of Sears Should Be Mourned by The Supply Chain Community

If I described to you a retail entity which did the following what would you say?

• Took orders nationwide over multiple channels (whatever technology was available) - phone, mail, store
• Delivered to your door most items
• You could buy anything - a belt for your suit or a complete home for your empty lot as you came back from fighting for America
• Had a complete after sales service network which reached just about every town in America
• Had brands which leveraged contract manufacturing so you always had the "store brand" but behind it were the best manufacturers available

You likely would say, "Wow, that must be Amazon".  Then if I added this:

• You could order any product at the store and when you ordered it you could immediately, at the cash register, set up a delivery appointment.
• They delivered everything, installed it and provided great after market service
• They did this anywhere there was a store.. which literally was everywhere.

Now you would say, "Wow, that is Amazon combined with XPO in one grouping.  The technology (inventory, scheduling final mile routing etc.) must be amazing!"

But, of course, what I am describing is what Sears was literally doing 25 years ago.  Sears Logistics Services was a pioneer in all things omnichannel and all things final mile delivery. I personally always shopped at Sears as I was in the military so I moved a lot.  However, every town I went to had a Sears, they all serviced you great, they would deliver where ever I lived and I could always count on them. 

Many stores today are just warehouses which are full of "stuff" to buy.  Sears sales people were experts at what they sold.  Ask a person in a "big box" today about an appliance they are selling on the floor and likely they will go over to it with you and read the sign (which I can do) and then start filling in gaps with what they "think".  They have no knowledge beyond what I have and in some cases, a lot less. 

When you went into a Sears store the appliance person (using appliances just as an example) had manufacturer training, likely had worked for an appliance company and were actually old enough to have owned a few themselves.  Pure expertise. 

So, while we all can sound smart about all the dumb things the modern leadership of Sears did we should not forget their logistics and supply chain expertise.  When I read what some of the retailers are doing today to make their delivery network more available and efficient for the consumer I can only think, "hmmm, that looks like Sears 25 years ago".

Reminds me of a great quote "Want a new idea, read an old book".

Capitalism without Capital and Why Amazon Was Able to Get To Scale

I am currently reading a fantastic book titled Capitalism without Capital:  The Rise of The Intangible Economy by Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake.  The essential message of the book is how the "new" economy allows companies to get to hyperscale size because they are built on intangibles (software and ideas).  These are infinitely scalable and have allowed the growth of FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google ) to incredible levels.  Because this is a supply chain blog, I will focus on what this means for everyone else relative to Amazon. 

People constantly ask the question: How can Amazon keep growing if they do not make money?  There are two answers:  First, Amazon has proved that if they want to scale back investment they can make a lot of money almost at will.   Just in Q2 of this year they made over $2bl in profit in one quarter.  Not bad for a company that "does not make any money".  Second, and this is the most important point, they have built this profit machine on the value of intangibles.

Most companies value themselves based on what can physically be put on the balance sheet.  Something is an "asset" if it is physical in nature and can be valued in the marketplace, mostly by figuring out its resale value.  Further, accounting rules actually favor this as when you put this "asset" on the books you do not have to expense it all at once but rather depreciate it over time.  This makes a physical good more valuable than an intangible good. 

However in the intangible economy where it is intangibles which truly drive value this is a real problem.  Think of it this way:  What makes Amazon's supply chain so great?  It certainly is not the buildings, racks, trucks or even the Kiva robots.  All of those are easily replicable.  Rather, it is the intangible assets which make it great and where they have invested a lot.  It is the algorithms, the engineering solutions, the supply chain processes (inventory, order management and advanced delivery routing) which add all of the distinctive value of Amazon.  So now we can answer the question:  Why doesn't everyone just replicate Amazon?

Because their rigid and outdating accounting systems won't let them.

While others are looking to physical assets which can be depreciated and can easily be valued for ROI purposes Amazon looks to the intangibles.  By doing this Amazon has built a cash machine which now allows them to put up physical assets with ease. 

The basic tenet of the book is companies which value their intangible assets have infinite scale.  Once they get to this point it is tough for anyone to catch up. 

Heading to Edge 2018 - CSCMP

I hope to connect with a lot of colleagues and meet new ones as we head to Nashville for the CSCMP Edge 2018 meeting.  For those who are new in the industry, this is the premiere event and the "must go" event for the year.  As I reflect on why I try to go every year, I think about the following:

1. Thought Leadership:  The people who are setting the trends are here and they are happy to engage with you.  Just by attending sessions, listening deeply and interacting with the industry leaders I get to think about issues, how others have solved them, where the supply chain industry is going and, most importantly, what our customers (of our products) need from the supply chain.
2. Connection: The ability to connect with colleagues whom I have worked with or known for the better part of 30 years.  The supply chain industry is a community and you must engage in it.  One of my key recommendations to those who are starting out in the industry is the need to engage with colleagues.  Think of it as your own personal "crowd sourcing".  This is where you get this done in the span of 4 days.
3. Sharpen the Saw:   I really try to "get away", disconnect and that allows me to deeply engage in the conference.  I work hard not to jump on my cell phone, do email etc.  My feeling is if your organization cannot run for 4 days without your constant interaction then that is a signal there is a real problem with the organization.  So, I encourage everyone to engage.  

I was lucky enough to be the conference chair in Denver a few years ago and also serve on the board of this great institution.  

Look forward to seeing you all there!

Convinced Even More That Wal-Mart Should Be The Winner v. Amazon

I have written many times about the idea of Walmart v. Amazon in the battle of retailing and e-commerce.  My basic thesis has always been this:  Walmart can do everything Amazon can do but Amazon CANNOT do everything Walmart can do.  And, yes, it revolves around the stores.  

One of my first posts on this topic was back in March of 2013 when I posted "The Battle for Retail Sales is Really the Battle of Supply Chains".  In that article I concluded:

"In the end I believe Walmart and the other big retailers can and should be able to beat Amazon.  Just like Dell could have and should have beaten Asus and just like Sears could have and should have beaten Walmart."

I concluded because of the huge logistics and retail head start Walmart had they could beat Amazon at their own game.  I also, however, posited the problem Walmart would have - the ability to innovate and brand.  Here I said:

"The problem for companies like Wal-Mart and other retailers is they are losing the "branding" war.  The name "Amazon" is becoming synonymous with on line shopping.  People I talk to really do not "shop" on line they just go to Amazon to buy what they want.  It is becoming what Marissa Mayer (New CEO of Yahoo) calls a "daily habit".  As a consumer, you decide whether you are going to go to a store or buy on line.  If you decide to buy on line you go directly to Amazon.  I am sure Wal-Mart has all sorts of statistics that try to pat themselves on their backs but reality is Amazon is building a brand which equates to on line shopping - The Amazon brand is to on line shopping what the term "Xerox" is to copiers.  If this hole gets too deep, Wal-Mart may not be able to dig out. "

Then, it appeared Walmart "awakened" and I wrote a post titled: "Welcome Back Wal-Mart:  We Missed You Over The Last 5 Years".  In this article I discussed how I went to a Walmart and also used their on-line e-commerce system.  Both experiences were extraordinary and this posting was written about 1 year ago.

Today, I have seen the future and it is, in fact, in Walmart.  I am more convinced then ever they will win this as long as they stay hungry, scrappy and focused on the customer.  In my local Walmart they recently added the giant "Pick up Tower" which essentially is an automated way for you to buy products, have them brought to the store and have a very seamless and frictionless way of getting them.   A picture of this is to the left.  Because just about everyone in America goes past a Walmart just about every day, ordering on line and picking up in the store is essentially a no-brainer.  Can Amazon do that?  Sure in the few Whole Foods stores, maybe, but not at the scale a Walmart can do it in. 

So, think of this scenario.  You "shop" on line at night after work and in front of your T.V.  You set to pick it up tomorrow at the local Walmart.  On your way home from work you swing past, you pick it up and voila.. it is at home.  So, why is this so intriguing to me?  Well, it is because there are a few external events occurring in the retail / e-commerce space which are converging and making the pure e-commerce play more difficult.   They are:

1. Rising Cost of Transportation:  Who does not know about this topic?  The way to mitigate high costs of transportation is to keep trucks "fullest the furthest" and don't break them down until you absolutely have to.  This allows for far more efficiencies when delivering to stores than to people's homes.

2. The Rise of "Porch Pirates":  This is a very interesting phenomena where people just go around to houses and steal delivered goods.  If you live in an apartment complex, it is like the wild wild west.  Between people stealing and boxes being left at wrong buildings and doors, it is a true mess.  Many companies are trying to solve this with "lockers", ability to go into your home, delivery to trunks etc. but net net, it all adds cost and complexity to the delivery system. The simple solution already exists - deliver it to a store.

3. Infrastructure Costs: Without a store network, the cost of building out a really good e-commerce infrastructure are astronomical.  The Home Depot, which already has one of the best supply chains in retail and has 2200 stores is about to spend over $1bl to build out what they believe they need for same day / next day service.  Imagine if you are starting from scratch?

4. Inability of Small Package Carriers to Deal With "Surge" Periods:  Finally, we hear this every Christmas season - one of the two major players will have "guessed" wrong and either they lose their shirt in terms of cost or they have not nearly the capacity needed to service the boxes. 

In the end, this is Walmart's game to lose and it appears they have no intention of losing.  I personally use both and am a "Prime Member" however when that comes up for renewal I think I will be rethinking that automatic sign up.  From a supply chain perspective, I believe Walmart is better situated than any other retailer in the business for the following reasons:

1. A very mature small box, big box and cold chain distribution network already in place.  They have a huge head start.

2. The ability to service an "endless aisle".  With this mechanism you could buy anything from them even if they never stock in the store.

3. Prime real estate for retail.  Any chance you do not drive past one?

4. Walmart Pay:  I have not mentioned this but the ease of paying using Wal-Mart pay is truly incredible. Also, it does not use NFC but rather QR codes which means all phones essentially can use it (Google Pay and Apple Pay require NFC which is in higher end phones). 

The battle continues but right now, due to the maturity of the supply chain, I am leaning to Walmart.