My Thesis on FOMO for Logistics and Supply Chain Technology Has Stood The Test of Time

Paraphrase:  "We reduce the logistics' cost as % of GDP which results in lower costs for goods and services, which lifts the standard of living for all Americans" - Don Schneider

 

Don Schneider

That phrase, while I many not be getting it word for word, has stuck with me from the day I met him almost 30 years ago. 

First, I apologize as it has been a long time since I put thoughts on the blog about what is going on in the supply chain world.  I should have kept up with it better.  I just went back and looked at my last posting which was on January 19, 2022 and it addressed the issue of supply chain technology. 

Two quotes from that post really stand out:

"The "free money" aspect of the pandemic has also driven an explosion in supply chain / logistics technology. Again, some have driven huge value but by far the vast majority have not.  They have just been the recipients of a lot of money sloshing around in the economy looking for a place to land."

and:

"They [Supply Chain Practitioners] layer technology on top of technology and it still does not get them very far.  This is FOMO.  This is "I am going to try anything and everything because I am afraid I am going to miss out on the latest greatest thing". 

We are starting to see the realization that this technology, without good processes and without assets, is not helping very much. The aggregate outcome metric I like to use is the US Business Logistics Costs as a percent of the nation's GDP. After all the technology improvements we have made, in 2021, this cost was 8% of GDP which, according to the 2022 State of Logistics report issued by CSCMP, has not been this high since 2008.   

Source: CSCMP 2022 SOL Report

Ultimately, we as an industry have to be measured on whether we are delivering value (higher service at lower costs) or not.  This table and information would say we are not doing that.  From the same report, we can trace these costs back to 2012:

Source CSCMP 2022 SOL Report and 10xLogistics Analysis

The graph is up 2bps since 2012 (coming out of a deep recession) and has, more importantly, changed the game significantly since 2018.  Some may say is only 2bps so what does it matter and my point is you would think we could get improvement with all the technology spend we have incurred. 

Do not get me wrong as there is a lot of good in our newest supply chain technology and there are certain aspects of running a supply chain I could not live without however, in the aggregate, logistics has become more costly for less service. 

My question for the supply chain industry is: "Would Don be Happy with this result"?  I will leave you to answer that on your own.  

This is something the supply chain industry has to address and hopefully people will talk about this at CSCMP EDGE conference this year.  Engage on Twitter with the hashtag #logtech

 

  

Is "Freight-Tech" the future or Has Uber and Lyft Killed the Dream?

While I personally was unable to attend the annual Freightwaves Transparency19 conference this year I did watch a lot of the clips and I was fascinated by the shear volume of "Freight-tech"(I will abbreviate FT) companies coming out of the woodwork to help shippers ship product.  We are in the "golden age" of FT launches, venture capital money and potentially IPOs.

Or, as the title stated, has Uber and Lyft killed the dream?  More on that later but first, let's remind ourselves "how business works".

An entrepreneur comes up with a great idea and tries to get it to scale with a series of private fundings.  Venture capitalists get in early, generally get seats on the board and hope for an eventual big pay day when the company is either sold or goes public.  The company is built to scale (meaning it is generating cash - hopefully - or has a path to be cash flow positive.  Then, the early owners need to take money out of the company for a variety of reasons by going public or selling. Here are the reasons they may want to extract money:

1. Family wealth planning - they generally have a lot of their wealth in the company and they need some back.  
2. Pay Employees - Many early stage company employees are paid with options and they eventually want and need that money.  This is a warning to many employees who get in too late in the game.  If your options are valued right before the IPO then a lot of the time you are under water when it goes public (as are many Uber and Lyft employees).
3. All the juice is squeezed and the VC people want out. - Venture capitalists do not hold companies and eventually they want their money back.  Once they believe they have "squeezed all the juice out of they idea they will want to exit. 

Now, let's get back to Uber and Lyft and while I did not read the S-1 for the Lyft before it went public I did read the S-1 of Uber (skip the glitz slides and read the words) and it caused me to ask the question: "Who the hell would invest in this company"?  Let's look at what the S-1 (The S-1 is a required SEC filing before the company goes public and it generally is the first time you get to see their financials - it is required reading if you are going to invest in IPOs)  taught us:

1. Uber has lost over $3Bl in the last three years.  And that is if you count a gain on divestiture and "other investments".  If you look at just operations, in the last three years Uber has lost almost $10bl.  
2. They continually discuss incentives paid to the drivers and to the customers.  They are paying on both sides of the transaction.  
3. There is very little path to profitability.  They "sold" the IPO to the retail investor at exactly the right time (for them. 

Now, what are the learnings from e-commerce?  What we are starting to see is the "bricks and clicks" (Especially Wal-Mart) is the model to win.  Unfortunately, Wal-Mart took far too long to "get in the game" and it may be too late.  But, if Wal-Mart had responded back in 2013 as I had suggested when I wrote The Battle for Retail Sales is Really The Battle of Supply Chains, they would have killed it. Once Wal-Mart woke up I welcomed them back in 2017 in the article, "Welcome Back Wal-Mart. We Missed You Over the Last 5 Years". 

Which brings me to J.B. Hunt and their work with Box and J.B. HUNT360.  That is the winning formula!  It is the "Bricks and Clicks" of the freight world.  Like retail, eventually everything gets down to assets.  Someone needs to build stores and warehouses in retail and in freight someone needs to own the boxes, trucks and have drivers.  J.B. Hunt is showing they learned the lesson of Wal-Mart (Don't cede any ground to the tech guys), they jumped in early, they disrupted their own business and they are now the leader in this space for the asset players.  

What will come of all this?  I believe J.B. Hunt will continue to drive their leadership position further and the asset guys, to catch up, will have to buy a number of these FT companies.  Which means the VC population will get what they want but the asset guys will pay a huge premium for not getting in early.  

So, let me summarize:

1. Too much money chasing too few ideas... the "new" ideas are starting to be "me too's" (How many apps can have a competitive algorithm just to find an available truck)?
2. The FT VC population will want to sell.
3. The Asset guys will find out they are getting killed by the "trucks and clicks" model of J.B. Hunt and this will drive them to pay exorbitant prices to get the tech quick to catch up. 
4. JBHunt, by innovating early and fast will win this game big just like they did with intermodal. 

Finally, in the UBER S-1 we get our first public glance of UBER Freight and I am amazed at how small it is.  Now that UBER is public we will get to see more and more of their financials.  They believe the industry is moving to an "On-Demand" industry.  I find this hard to believe as big shippers need predictable freight and solutions like the J.B. HUNT 360Box where you get access to trailer pools.  I could be wrong, but I do not see a huge future for this.