Navigating the Freight Recession: Causes, Impact, and Recovery Outlook

We have all heard of the global freight recession and much has been discussed. I thought I would provide a simple summary of "how we got to here" and what the outlook is for the future. So, here goes...

In the dynamic world of global trade, the freight industry often serves as a barometer for economic conditions. Recently, this sector has entered a period of downturn, commonly referred to as a freight recession. This article delves into the underlying causes of this recession, evaluates its severity, and forecasts the potential timeline for recovery.

What Caused the Freight Recession?

The freight recession can be attributed to several interlinked factors:

1. Global Economic Slowdown: A significant deceleration in major economies has reduced the demand for goods, subsequently diminishing the need for freight services. This slowdown is partly due to the residual effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which disrupted supply chains and altered consumer behaviors.
2. Inflation and High Interest Rates: Inflation has surged worldwide, leading central banks to raise interest rates. Higher borrowing costs have cooled spending on both consumer and capital goods, directly impacting freight volumes.
3. Overcapacity and Rate Volatility: During the pandemic, there was a surge in demand leading to an increase in freight capacity, including the acquisition of new ships and containers. As demand normalizes, this excess capacity has led to rate volatility and lower revenue per shipment for freight companies.
4. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues, including trade wars and sanctions, have reshaped trade routes and affected the volume of international shipments.

How Bad Is the Freight Recession?

The current freight recession is notably severe due to its wide-reaching impact across multiple transport modalities, including shipping, trucking, and air freight. Several key indicators highlight the severity:

• Decline in Freight Rates: Container shipping rates have plummeted from their pandemic highs, with some routes witnessing rate declines of over 50%.
• Reduced Shipping Volumes: Major ports have reported a noticeable drop in container throughput, with some experiencing double-digit percentage declines year-over-year.
• Financial Strain on Carriers: Many freight carriers are facing financial difficulties, evidenced by reduced earnings forecasts and increased merger and acquisition activity as companies seek to consolidate and cut costs.

When Will We Come Out of the Freight Recession?

Predicting the end of the freight recession is challenging due to its dependence on broader economic recovery and stabilization in global trade relations. However, several factors will play critical roles in determining the timeline:

• Economic Recovery: A rebound in major economies, driven by consumer spending and industrial investment, will be crucial. This recovery may be spurred by easing inflation and stabilizing interest rates, likely setting the stage for increased freight demand.
• Resolution of Geopolitical Conflicts: An easing of trade tensions and resolution of conflicts could lead to restored trade routes and improved freight volumes.
• Adjustments in Industry Capacity: The freight industry may need to undergo further consolidation and capacity adjustments to align with the new demand levels.

Industry experts suggest a potential recovery timeline ranging from late 2024 to early 2026, depending on the rapidity with which these factors converge. The road ahead for the freight sector is fraught with uncertainties, but with strategic adjustments and economic stabilization, a gradual recovery is anticipated.

In conclusion, the freight recession is a complex phenomenon influenced by economic, political, and industry-specific factors. While the current outlook is challenging, focusing on adaptive strategies and monitoring economic indicators can help industry stakeholders navigate through these turbulent times.

Supply Chain Transformations Involve Many Elements - Thinking is The Most Important

It appears every supply chain I know of is in the middle of a big transformation. In many cases people misread the COVID Pandemic surge as a "new normal" and many invested heavily only to be shown that the idea of mean reversion is serious business. This is affecting even big and very sophisticated supply chains. Today we learned The Home Depot is even relooking at the supply chain efforts started during the COVID period (H/T: Supply Chain Dive). 

With great fanfare, just a few short years ago, Home Depot talked about the investment of $1.2 billion to create the "One Supply Chain". Today we learned they are now embarking on a $500M cost reduction in their supply chain as sales "return to normal".  This is happening all over as we discussed previously (Amazon adjusts) and is not unique to Home Depot. So, what are these transformations is missing? How do we whipsaw so quickly? Again, this is pervasive across many companies so I think it is worth thinking about. I have a few ideas. 

1. Strategy Duration: Many companies confuse tactics with strategy. Many companies also confuse short term "flash in the pan" with true change. I have always discussed the idea of mean reversion and have also used the statement "if something is too good to continue, it likely will not". Did anyone think the growth rates of 2020/2021 could continue indefinitely? So, strategically, should anyone have set up their long term capital investment and strategies around a growth rate that mathematically just could not continue? Lesson One: Strategy has to survive at least 5 years otherwise it is a tactic. 
   
   
2. Market First: Supply chain leaders and supply chains can sometimes get caught up in the science of running a supply chain but the leaders forget that all strategy has to start with the market then work its way back into the operations. I discussed this in my blog post titled: Go To Market Strategy Before Supply Chain Strategy
   
   
3. Scenario Planning: Many leaders forget this incredible necessary and powerful competency. As I wrote in my blog post: Scenario Planning - Face it, You are WRONG, predicting the future is a very difficult and dangerous business. In fact, I would say it is futile. However, what you can do is predict multiple futures and assign probabilities to each "future". You then can plan for it and also identify the key factors that you will monitor to determine which "future" is going to happen. The goal is to maintain optionality as long as you can. Don't commit until you absolutely have to. 
   
   
4. Change Management: Likely the most important part of any supply chain transformation is the idea of change management. You have to communicate, communicate and communicate along with doing the hard work of bringing people along with the transformation. 

So, have we learned any lessons here? Maybe. Although I fear the rush to supply chain automation could be another situation where supply chain industry think and FOMO is taking over. My prediction: in 5-7 years people will realize all this automation has made operations far too rigid and not agile enough to change. Much of it will get ripped out and as Elon Musk said in a tweet from 2018:

“Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated,” 

Strategy is hard work and it takes a lot of thinking. Humans are inclined to want activity and generally they do not believe thinking is an activity. But, it is the most important activity you can do in a transformation.  

The Who makes a return appearance in "Won't Get Fooled Again" (or, maybe we will):

Reality is Settling in for Supply Chain Companies

One observation for supply chain companies is becoming very clear: The anomaly in the business cycle is the period of 2020 through 2022 and that will not be a "new normal". The new normal is really just the old normal: You have to provide value, cost and efficiency rule the day, service is great but not at any cost (See my discussion on Amazon below) and money is not free so disciplined capital allocation is back in vogue. Of course, we should not be surprised at any of this. Did we really think the basic "X's" and "O's" of business were totally being changed? Some thought so in a big way, some were skeptical but found it interesting, and some actually predicted we would be back to the basics. Count me in the middle to the latter of that and I admit there were times where I was even in the FOMO mode of thinking. No more.

So, what is the data that points to the fact that we are back to basics:

1. Disciplined Capital Allocation: We read in the Wall Street Journal Logistics Report how Venture Capital Money is getting tight for logistics and supply chain start-ups. I think 2020 - 2022 will be seen as the "get it all while you can" time frame and those who raised as much capital as possible during that time will be winners - especially if they sold the company before the end of 2022. Disciplined capital allocation means less money (a lot less money) for companies who are not earning a profit or are a "me-too" company. Also, supply chain practitioners, who are under pressure to lower costs, are no longer going to get caught up in the FOMO sales game (software being bought for fear of missing out and the JDS - Just do something mentality). Bottom line, in this environment where money is actually valuable again, raising money on an idea will no longer be appropriate. 
   
   
2. Service is King BUT NOT at Any Cost: Amazon touted their idea of "we provide the service people want and we will figure out the cost" during the hyper growth phase of the pandemic. This meant if their inventory systems did not place the inventory at the right spot, and you wanted it same or next day, Amazon would incur the cost and get it to you. There was no debate. That was their issue and their job was to provide the service then go back and find out why it happened and how to ensure it does not happen again. They are calling this their new "Regional Distribution Model".
   
   Under the new regime they have decided if the product is not available "in the market" then the customer will have the burden. So, if you paid for "Prime" but the product is not in the market, there is no same or next day delivery. You wait. They are saying (it is fantastic marketing spin) that this provides better service however anyone who uses Amazon Prime a lot realizes the service has degraded dramatically due to this change of philosophy. I remember during the pandemic getting packages that clearly were flown to me from a different market. They did this for the reason I cited above. Now, the customer waits. Supply Chain Dive outlines this:
   
   "Under its previous national distribution model, Amazon would have to ship an ordered product from other parts of the country if a local fulfillment center didn’t have it in stock. This increased the company’s cost to fulfill the order while lengthening delivery times." The last statement is magic in marketing. 
   
   
3. Efficiency is King: Remember during the pandemic when all the major distribution players were screaming for labor? "Where has everyone gone?". Well, they came back but were not welcomed for long. As we learned recently, Shopify's logistics arm was sold to Flexport (run by Dave Clark who was the leader at Amazon when the previous, customer-centric, service model was developed). Shopify must have realized that running a logistics company is far more complicated and this transaction could be the revenge of expertise. Having a veteran like Dave Clark run a logistics operation makes more sense than doing it as an offshoot of a bunch of tech marketing people. Of course, the obligatory mention of "AI will make us more efficient" is woven throughout the Shopify announcement. 
   
   
4. The Stock Market is Rational - in The Long Run: A pandemic darling was Freightos (CRGO) because it was a source a lot of people used for information and freight services when containers were $20K each. As the saying goes, "If something cannot go on forever, it won't" and container prices have now normalized and the need for all of this information and service has disappeared. The company went public in a SPAC transaction (SPAC transactions are another thing we will look back at 30 years from now and wonder how we all went so mad at the same time) at $10 (as they all are) and now is priced at $2.08. This is after a big spike leading up to their earnings announcement next week. Although, earnings are somewhat of a misnomer as in December 2022 their earnings announcement showed they lost $7.24M dollars. 
   
   The good news for them is they went public. I think there are many venture capital owned supply chain firms which have not revalued themselves yet but when they do they will find they are valued a lot less than the previous round of financing AND they have no path to going public. Some doors may have to shut. 

In summary, we are back to where business belongs: Disciplined execution, real earnings matter, and capital allocation matters.

Go to Market Strategy before Supply Chain Strategy

This article is directed mostly towards practitioners who operate supply chains within companies which market and sell products. I have done a lot of thinking recently about the discussions going on concerning "is just in time dead" or "on-shoring / near shoring" etc. There are a lot of conversations happening relative to all sorts of strategies for supply chains (and no lack of consultants who want to sell you on the latest and greatest ideas). My thesis here is that the first thing you have to develop and fully understand is your business' go to market strategy. Then, after that is completely articulated and written down, you can discuss your supply chain strategy. 

So, what is a go to market strategy? It is simply writing down what products you will provide, what markets will you provide them into, who are your competitors, who are your customers and how will you compete? In a 1993 Harvard Business Review article (and subsequently in his book Double Digit Growth) Micheal Treacy and his co-author Fred Wiersema argue that most companies have to pick one strategy they will really excel at and exploit it. The three strategies, from which a company picks are: 1) Customer Intimacy 2) Operational Excellence 3) Product Innovation. It is a fairly rare unicorn which can "master two".

Just by the names of these strategies and without reading the book (Although I highly encourage you to read it) the reader can understand the implications for your supply chain strategy:

1. Customer Intimacy - High service is the calling card. Maybe not service at any cost, but high service nonetheless. The thesis here is that if you provide a truly differentiated and incredible service level, customers will be loyal and they will buy more from you. You will also keep your competitors away as they likely cannot functionally or financially compete against you. 
   
   
2. Operational Excellence - This is low cost. You will compete on cost and every nickel counts. Your customers do not want (and certainly will not pay for) extra bells and whistles. Just do what you say you will do. At this year's CSCMP Edge conference I attended a great presentation with one of the returnable pallet providers. Their strategy was all about efficiency and low-cost. 
   
   It is not "bad" to be in a low cost industry. You have to know it and embrace it and that is what this person did in his presentation. The company's network design, systems and operations were totally geared towards efficiency. They will do exactly what they say they will do with no frills, bells or whistles and they will do no more. The customer gets what they need at rock bottom prices. 
   
   
3. Product Leadership - Think Apple. This is where the product is so good that customers, while they want efficiency, will actually "pay up" or even wait for the product because that product is so good and desirable. Everyone uses the iPhone as an example of this and so some may think only Apple can do this. Let me use another example: The Kitchenaid Standmixer. I worked specifically for this division of Whirlpool for over a year and I can tell you, people will wait for that product. It is iconic. Everyone wants one. Mother's took bus tours of the plant with their daughters before they got married. So, yes, if you truly do have an exceptional and differentiated product, you do not need to be Apple to win. 

So, what does this have to do with supply chain? My submission is it has everything to do with supply chain because you first have to understand which of the three your company is doing to determine what your supply chain strategy will be. Imagine if the person from the pallet company decided his supply chain strategy was going to be "Customer Intimacy" and he built a highly responsive, high service and high cost supply chain. This would be a complete mismatch to the customer's desires and expectations of a low cost and highly efficient supply chain. The supply chain leader needs to fully understand the "go to market" strategy of the company before s/he can build out the supply chain strategy. 

One last bit of advice and warning: Be very leery of a company that wants to be one of the strategies above but is in an industry that demands another strategy. For example, many sales and marketing people want to be in a customer intimate industry because that is what they do. It is fun and energizing. But, this what they want. What do the customers want? If the customers want operational excellence or product leadership then what you will have is chaos. You will never get the supply chain strategy right.

In conclusion:

• Understand your company go to market strategy before you do anything.
• Ensure that stated strategy matches up with the industry you are in. 
• Then, and only then, develop and implement your supply chain strategy. 

After two years of supply chain disruptions and craziness, I tend to think I am Napoleon at Waterloo so tonight, I offer ABBA singing Waterloo:

Zero Dark Thiry, Precision, and Supply Chain

 Last night I re-watched Zero Dark Thirty which is a great Hollywood rendition of the search for and ultimate killing of Osama Bin Laden.  No politics here and I just want to reflect on what the learnings are for us, especially in that final scene where we get to see execution with amazing precision.  

There is a lot to learn here for supply chain professionals and it all revolves around the word precision.  If there was one word which defined that mission, it is that word, precision.  I underline and bold it as it is a word to not forget. Precision is an outcome of two other key words: planning and practice.  This could become a new term in supply chain, or perhaps a new formula:  Prc = Pl*Prct.  Precision = planning multiplied by practice. Let’s look into this:

1. Planning: If the Pandemic taught us nothing else it taught us the importance of scenario planning. This means you look at all the different scenarios which could impact your business and supply chain, you identify those things which are “early warning indicators” to let you know if the scenario is happening or not, you identify what the severity of the issue will be if it occurs, then you plan and execute a mitigation strategy if needed. This is similar to a FMEA except you do this for external events. 
1. Note:  McKinsey and Company reports 37% of supply chains implemented some element of supply chain scenario planning and these were 2.0x more likely to not have supply chain disruptions
2. Practice: This is an area business tends to lack and as the formula would imply, if your planning is 100 but you practice at 0 then your precision will be 0.  It is also something the military does extremely will. Think of the movie I am referencing where they have complete mock ups of where they are going, they knew when they went in the house, even at night, exactly where they were and they knew the name of every occupant.  They knew this because they practiced, and practiced and practiced.  How many companies do you know have great scenario plans but they just sit on a shelf somewhere and no one has looked at them, let a lone practiced them.  

This all leads to precision which is what supply chain is all about. Precision means a process is both reliable and repeatable. It means you do what you say and it means “9x%” is not good enough (Remember, you can be 95% on time but to the customer in the 5% part you are 100% not on time). Precision means each part of the chain can absolutely rely on the other parts of the chain to execute exactly what they are supposed to do without even checking. Another part of the military is when they go on missions and they do minimal or no talking with each other (Radio silence). They just expect you to do your part and there is no checking. 

Precision then leads to a world class customer experience.  Technology and even talent are means to get to precision.  If you have great technology but still cannot get precise in your execution then it was, what I described last week as FOMO technology. Technology which is “cool” but does not accomplishes much. 

So, lesson for today, recommit to precision, never say “good enough”, once you get to one level of precision, spend 5 minutes congratulating yourself and then move to the next level. 

With this, I leave you with the trailer of this incredible movie.  Next time you watch it, watch it with the thought of a precise supply chain in mind. What can you learn?

Beware FOMO and New Supply Chain Technology

 In November of 2019 I wrote an article entitled "What Do FOMO and LinkedIn Have To Do With Supply Chain". FOMO is short for "Fear of Missing Out" and the general thesis of my article was if you become consumed with chasing every rabbit down every rabbit hole for "fear of missing out" then you will likely not get much done. 

The same can be true about LinkedIn. I wrote this in 2019 and I submit it has become 100x worse than when I wrote this article. 

And yes, we can somewhat blame the pandemic for this phenomenon in supply chain.  Ever since everyone has been home there has been an explosion of podcasts and home grown "T.V." shows discussing supply chains.  Some of them are hosted by people who have worked for a very short time, if at all, as a practitioner of supply chains.  

The "free money" aspect of the pandemic has also driven an explosion in supply chain / logistics technology. Again, some have driven huge value but by far the vast majority have not.  They have just been the recipients of a lot of money sloshing around in the economy looking for a place to land.  

Practitioners have some culpability in this as well.  Many have scrambled to do something - anything to show their leadership they are trying everything to overcome the effects of disruption.  So, what do they do?  They layer technology on top of technology and it still does not get them very far.  This is FOMO.  This is "I am going to try anything and everything because I am afraid I am going to miss out on the latest greatest thing".  Here are my simple few suggestions for the practitioner to avoid this trap:

1. Do the detailed work BEFORE you talk to a technology company:  This means you have to process map out how your business operates.  You need to identify the key metrics you are using and you have to identify what success looks like.  Use the Amazon methodology which is just what Covey taught us when he said, "Begin With The End in Mind".  Write the press release you will release 4 years from now.  What will you have accomplished. 
   
   
2. Operate Manually First if at All Possible:  This will allow you to be incredibly flexible as you "test and learn" all different ways of getting things accomplished. 
   
   
3. Follow the Tom Brady rule of focusing and ignoring all the noise. (See my posting on this: What Separates "Vital Few Metrics" from "Nice to Know" Metrics - And What Can We Learn from Tom Brady...). 
   
   
4. Write the spec! This is not necessarily hard work but some may find it tedious.  This is the work where you get as specific as possible on what you really need and what will really add value to your organization.  The more detailed this is written the more likely it is you will not get enamored by "shiny spinning plates" but rather will identify and get what you really need.  
   
   
5. Then and only then do you start inviting in technology providers and identify which is best to fill the gaps you identified by going through the 4 step process above. 

I am not saying not to "shop around and learn" but look at those interactions as learning - nothing more and nothing less.  Realize that as soon as you step into the bazaar that is a trade show, full of technology shiny toys, you are at high risk of FOMO kicking in and you being distracted by things that you do not need.  Much like going into a high tech electronics store and walking out with $1,000 of technology that you now "absolutely have to have" but 1 day ago you had no idea you "needed", you run the risk of doing the same for your company.  Except in this case, it could cost millions.

When you feel you are starting to get caught up in the FOMO mania, I suggest activating the "breathe app" on your Apple Watch and, just breathe. 

To that end, tonight, let's just meditate:

What Separates "Vital Few Metrics" from "Nice to Know" Metrics - And What Can We Learn from Tom Brady...

 I was reading an article about Tom Brady today in the Washington Post and it led me to think about metrics in supply chain.  How could that possibly be, you ask?  What does how a quarterback preforms in football have to do with supply chain?

First, in case there are those who do not know who Tom Brady is I would just ask you to google him.  Whether you like him or not as a fan you have to respect all that he has accomplished.  We literally likely will not see another like him in our lifetime, or maybe ever, as it relates to football and longevity.  9 super bowl appearances,  7 titles and 13 AFC Championship games.  When everyone thought he was done, he went off to Tampa Bay where he promptly won another super bowl.  ( I will not list them all here but if you want to know all the records he holds, I found this website).

The article in the Washington Post was titled: Tom Brady is telling his own story and doing it at his own pace: (May require firewall).  The general theme was the success of Tom Brady (Besides raw talent - which a lot of NFL QBs have had and have been far less successful) can be boiled down to just a few items:

• His ability to focus on the mission in front of him. 
• His ability to ignore all the noise around him in terms of success (fan noise, social media noise, trappings of fame noise).
• His discipline in controlling his time.  Everyone wants a piece of his time but he rarely provides it.  He does not have to be everywhere. 

He trains in February to win the Superbowl a year later.  That is what we would call medium to long term thinking and that is what metrics allow us to do in supply chain.  If we focus on a few, remove all the noise by ignoring the "nice to know", eliminate our natural FOMO (Fear of missing out) instincts, identify the critical outcome (spoken in the terms of a customer) and then relentlessly monitor and improve, we can be like Tom Brady and win a lot of supply chain super bowls. 

I believe people get in trouble in three areas when they devise metrics:

• They are inwardly focused and not from the view of a customer
• The critical few are not separated out from the "nice to know"
• They do not have one or two (no more) clear outcome metrics.  Using our football analogy, think of the outcome metric as the score of the game.  All the individual stats that are produced (proudly by AWS) during the game are just input or driving metrics.  They only matter if they indicate and predict what the outcome of the game will be. 

Finally, we learn from Tom Brady (and Bill Belichick, the coach of New England) that it is all about improving.  You win the superbowl by winning one game at a time and not dwelling on the negatives.  My favorite press conference was after New England got destroyed by Kansas City one year and at the post game presser all Belichick said was, "We are on to Cincinnati".  Meaning, the game with KC is done, over, now it is about improving and winning the next game.  (Patriots ended up beating Cincinnati 43-17 and went on to win the Super Bowl)

Too often people are looking at "rear view mirror" metrics so much that while they are constantly reviewing the metrics they forget to look in the windshield to see what is coming next (Cincinnati).  Sometimes you have to just learn then move on.  A critical few metrics, where you isolate and ignore all the noise, will ensure you do this.   

In honor of Bill Belichick, below is the press conference I reference.  (You will have to go to YouTube to see these)

Have a great week!

As an added bonus, if you want to have a lot of laughs, here is a montage of all his press conferences which are epic:

Thursday Note on THE Supply Chain - Birth Rate in The United States

 This is just a quick note on some learnings from the last few days.  While there are a lot of issues in supply chain which are well documented both here and other places (i.e., international capacity, truck capacity, shortages of materials etc.) the single biggest issue I hear from all my peers is the labor issue.  So, why is this such a big issue?

First, it appears to be a very systemic issue which is pervasive and has no easy fix.  A lot is discussed about pay rates but the reality is America is running out of workers.  it is simple math.  The chart below from MacroTrends (Source United Nations) shows it clearly:

The birth rate of the United States is the problem.  Combine that with a very restrictive immigration policy of late and you can see the problem.  This was not an unforeseen problem.  5 years ago, at a HBS reunion I heard the head of the Dallas Federal Reserve say this was coming.  Is it COVID related?  Well, like all things, COVID did not help, but this was coming for a long time.  We are just now here.

So, if you are young and fertile… get at it and do your patriotic duty and have kids. 

Second, I hear over and over again from friends in almost every industry in America:  They cannot produce fast enough to meet the demand for everything.  Thus, there is a shortage of everything.  Given how long it takes to spin up large capital projects I would just say we have to learn to live with it.  

Finally, the trend of the markets valuing and investing in technology instead of assets continues.  Flock Freight is now the newest unicorn according to TechCrunch.  Another app to try to help me find capacity.  This, I will admit is a bit unique in that it is not just another brokerage app but more assistance in co-loading.  Co-loading has been the holy grail for 30 years so I will watch this closely but so far, app or no app, no one has seemed to be able to make this work.  

OK, that is it and the song for tonight is in honor of these unicorn companies getting 100’s of millions of dollars:  Winner Take It All, by Abba:

Wednesday - Mid Week General Thoughts

 Here is just a quick summary of some things I am looking at this week and also some things which just make you go ... hmmmmmm:

1. California Ports 24-Hour Operation is Going Unused - WSJ).  So far the 24 hour out gate at the ports of LA/LB are considered a total bust.  Unfortunately, those making these rules don't understand the "chain" in supply chain.  It is not just about time available.  It is about trucks, drivers, port space, all sorts of workers, chassis and a myriad of other things.  If nothing is done on those fronts, the chain breaks and no amount of extra "open" time will fix it.  More to come but so far I rate the 24 hour port plan a F-.  
   
   
2. Driving up and down the highways at night allows you to see a big part of the problem.  Trucks parked all over the highway as they run out of hours and there is no parking for them.  Is anyone addressing this issue?  Does anyone think that parking on the side of the road, with no facilities and with no safety will attract people to the trucking industry?  Remember, for in trucking for every "machine" you employ you have to employ at least one person.  It is not like manufacturing where a "machine" eliminates the need for a number of people.  In trucking the capital employed to human is 1:1.  Treatment of Drivers: F.
   
   
3. Anyone been to Costco lately?  I have been in one in Michigan and one in Georgia recently and guess what?  The toilet paper shortage appears to be coming back.  This time I think it is more about lack of trucking capacity than anything.  Come on Costco, you can get restocked!
   
   
4. Inventory to Sales Ratios both total and just retail show little to no improvement.  This means my "when will this get better" meter is moving to the beginning of 2023 when I had it pegged at mid year 2022.  Still not coming off of the 2022 but the likelihood of it going into 2023 is getting more real. Likelihood of a quick resolution to the supply chain issues in America ending soon - D
   
   Total Inventory to Sales:
   
   
   
   
   

   Retail Inventory to Sales:
   
   

   

   
   
   
   
5. Port of Savannah is still the best port out there by far however it has been "found" by some big retailers who are slow to move their boxes off the port.  This has meant some ocean carriers have cancelled calls to Savannah and added the Ports of Jacksonville and Charleston.  I think just about everyone is starting to look at "over the water" movements to the East Coast versus getting into the mess of LA/LB then trying to move it over ground. Port of Savannah is an A
   
   
6. JB Hunt  (Stock information: JBHT)is the best run trucking company in America by far.  They knocked their quarter out of the park and they have even better days ahead.  They have transformed from an old school, irregular route trucking company to a high tech, well disciplined supply chain company.  And, the market is rewarding them for it as they have a P/E that values it like a tech company and just about everyone upgraded their stock this week.  YTD J.B. Hunt is up 44.64% as compared to Schneider (SNDR) who is up 19.7%.  (See comparison chart here).  JB Hunt is an A+
   
   
7. Costs continue to rise in all facets of the supply chain:  Various data sources tell us that yes Virginia, there is inflation, and a lot of it. 

OK, I just wanted to pass on some thoughts for mid-week.  Things I am working on include: 

1. Why is the market not putting capital into asset companies?  Just today another $200M investment in a tech company that is supposed to help you find a truck.  So, we keep building apps but we don't staff trucks.  Not helpful but the folks doing investing must know something I do not know. 
   
   
2. Should there be a reserve corps for Supply Chain Professionals?  I am really thinking we need this.  People join just like you would join the Army reserve except it is a national supply chain corps.  You would get the same protections the old "Soldiers and Sailors Relief act" provided and you would get called up as needed.  This would accomplish the same thing as calling up "the military" but you would get a lot more professionals to join as they would not have to do all the "Army Stuff"

More on those topics later.    I thought it fitting to end this post with "Bad Moon Rising" by Credence Clearwater Revival.  This should be the theme song for all supply chain experts!

This is Not Just COVID - Supply Chain Disruption Has Been Building for Years

 I will not bore you with all the pictures and the discussion of how many ships are off the coast of LA waiting to get unloaded.  If you are reading this, you already know that fact.  What I do want to discuss is the real problem with supply chains and the root cause of this mess. 

My fear is everyone is attributing everything to covid-19 and covid-19 certainly did not help.  Covid-19 dramatically changed the buying patterns across the world (from experiences to things) and that impacted supply chains tremendously.  However, like a lot of things related to covid-19, the impact merely accelerated a trend which was already growing.  My thesis is this:  The infrastructure of global supply chains was cracking and breaking and Covid-19 sped it up.  What is included in infrastructure:

1. Driver capacity
2. Lack of investment in highway infrastructure (just look at the trucks parked all over every night)
3. Lack of investment in port infrastructure
4. Lack of connectivity in systems (i.e., you book a container to come to the US but the people on the ground don't know when or even if it is coming)
5. Lack of a cohesive strategy on chassis management
6. Massive disruption and economic distortion with "on again and off again" tariffs. 
7. Lack of investment in real assets.  A lot of money going into apps and other systems for visibility etc. but what we need our trucks, drivers, trailers, containers and ships. 

My belief is until we get a comprehensive national strategy to deal with these issues, much like we have a national security strategy, petroleum reserve strategy etc. we will have these problems forever and what you see now may actually be the "new normal".  If you look at the group that is meeting now with the White House they still signal their belief that this is just a temporary covid-19 problem.  Their newest idea?  Keep the ports open longer!  Will that help? Yes, but does that deal with the core problems?  Absolutely not.  It is the aspirin for a headache which is actually caused by high blood pressure.  Your head will feel better but eventually your heart will burst.  

As much as we may dislike it or may hold an "all things government does is bad" idea we have to develop a national strategy to address these issues.  Remember, the Interstate Highway Network was a project the federal government did, with private industry, to ensure we could defend the country and it had the effect of enabling smooth frictionless commerce.  We need a big idea like that now.  

Don't let the excuse of covid-19 cover up all the issues in the supply chain in the United States. Despite all the billions of dollars invested in technology over the last 5 years, the global and national supply chains are performing worse than ever. 

And, for those of you who just cannot get enough of it, I will provide the obligatory picture of ships backed up at port. 

What Does The Ever Given Episode Teach Us?

 Many have focused on the Ever Given episode as a symbol for the dangers of international shipping.  Some have discussed it in terms of "choke points" such as the Suez Canal where when one thing goes wrong entire supply chains are disrupted.  And, some have taken it as an opportunity to discuss the topic of the size of the ships.  Have ships become too big?  What happens when there is a problem with a 20K TEU ship?

All of these are very important questions and are being addressed however I believe the question is even bigger.  It is about how we structure our supply chains.  It is about the age old debate of efficiency v. resilience.  Basically, how much insurance are you willing to buy to mitigate the potential of disruption? 

Start with inventory.  What is inventory?  As I have discussed previously, inventory is merely a buffer of product to substitute for the lack of perfect information. In fact, Lean teachings tell us that inventory is considered waste.  What do good managers do with waste?  They try and eliminate it.  

So, as we have done over the years companies have fallen in love with the idea of eliminating inventory because it makes the balance sheet look amazing.  But, is inventory really waste?

I submit that inventory is not waste just like your fire and auto insurance is not waste.  Think of your insurance policies.  You may pay a couple hundred dollars a month for a product you hope you will never use!  Wouldn't you consider that waste?  Well, not if you are protecting your portfolio you wouldn't.  

So, now, let's go back to the Ever Given.  The lesson here is we need more insurance (read: resilience) in global supply chains.  If we have learned anything in the last year we have learned things will go wrong.  Buffer stocks help mitigate this.  

The next question is whether we will learn that lesson from this incident.  My answer is, I doubt it.  Efficiency drives short term results and effectiveness is for the long term.  Most businesses will not be able to resist the allure of the efficient.  Even if in the short term they sacrifice efficiency for effectiveness most will eventually look for efficiency.  Not only are businesses likely to do it on their own but Wall Street will demand it for the publicly traded companies.  Another reason private companies will always have an advantage. 

What can a supply chain manager do?  Well, first, we can strike from our "lists of wastes" the word inventory.  Inventory, as I have hypothesized above, is not waste, it is insurance.  Second, become a story teller.  Supply chains in the age of COVID and Ever Given should be remembered for what they have become - stretched to the limit.  The mantra of "Never Forget" comes to mind. 

If you have doubt of my position look at my favorite graph (posted here for years) measuring, for the United States, our sales to inventory ratio:

Notice the far right of this graph.  Here you will see our inventories in the US relative to our sales is at the lowest point since April of 2012.  This is what leads us, as consumers, to scramble for everything.  

Let's not make it so every generation has to learn the same lesson.  Let's build resilient supply chains.  

Why The Chief Supply Chain Officer Needs to Understand Customer Experience in Detail

 Thesis:  The Chief Supply Chain Officer (CSCO) needs to be very close to the Chief Customer Officer or whoever in the enterprise is responsible for the customer experience. 

Discussion: 

This article is for those who are working supply chain within a company that makes or sells things.  We know the 3PL world needs to have a customer experience strategy but what about the CSCO within a manufacturer or retailer?  Isn't their job to just reduce costs and become "efficient"?  NO!  For those who have read my writings over the last 5 years you know I believe the single biggest job of the CSCO is to drive revenue.  In this day and age you drive it through customer experience (CX) even more than through product.  

Let's look at the big advancements which have propelled massive sales growth for key players during the pandemic.  A few examples:

1. Buy on line and pick up in store
2. Buy on line and have curbside pick-up
3. Use your smartphone to activate and pay for fuel at key gas stations (I do this a lot at Shell).
4. Use of stores as micro fulfillment centers

I could go on and on but all of these are supply chain solutions, empowered by technology to drive customer experience.  Notice nothing in that list had anything to do with product but rather had to do with how a customer or consumer acquires the product.  If you are back in the supply chain don't think you are immune from this trend because your customer has the same needs as a consumer.  They want a frictionless experience to make their business more impactful to the consumer.  You can help them with that and that will endear you more to your customer, they will buy more and they will be more loyal.   So, a quick conclusion for CSCO's to take action in this space:

1. Get to know and partner with the person in your company who is in charge of the customer experience.  A lot of times this is in the sales or marketing area.}
   
2. If your company does not have a person who owns this then take extreme ownership and take charge of it. 
3. Ensure your supply chain strategy supports everything your company is promising in their go to market and customer experience plans.  Nothing is worse than a supply chain strategy which is different than the go to market strategy. 
4. Consistently come back to the customer experience and use data such as net promoter scores (NPS) to determine if your supply chain is meeting the customer expectations.  

The customer and the consumer have the power.  You will differentiate yourself and your company if your supply chain focuses on the customer experience and "wow'ing" them each and every day. 

Post Script:  I think of this today and had to write about it industry lost a legend this week:  Tony Hsieh.  Tony founded Zappos and with it founded a company which was legendary for differentiating itself through customer experience.  How do you differentiate the selling of shoes?  Through Customer Experience! He built the company from nothing and sold it to Amazon for over $1bl.  We should all focus on CX like Tony did. 

 Rest in Peace, Tony Hsieh.  

By Charlie Llewellin from Austin, USA - tony hsieh, ceo, zappos.comUploaded by Edward, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=97091081

Mike Welch - A Legend Passes On

It took me a few days to even think about a world without Mike Welch.  Mike was truly a special man.  He was special not in a flashy way but special in a very specific way; he made everyone's life a little bit better.  He was a friend to me, a business mentor to me, a supplier in some instances and he was a model of community involvement for the community my family lived in for so many years.  He made our life better.

I feel a need to tell the story of how Mike and I met and started working together.  In 2004 I was the General Manager of a the Ford Service Parts Business working for Schneider Logistics (SLI).  Ford was building out their Daily Parts Advantage service model and asked SLI to somewhat replicate what we were already doing for GMSPO.  As the GM I had to find dedicated carriers to make all the deliveries nationwide to almost 5K dealers and we were having trouble finding a carrier in Evansville, Indiana.

Luckily, I had an acquaintance who used to sell truck parts but now owned a company called Segmentz.  They were a very small LTL company and at the time Ford wanted to really look at costs and so we took a chance on this small, unknown and very inexperienced company.  Right after we contracted with them they purchased Express-1 from Mike Welch.  This acquisition is what made Express-1 a public company and it turns out the only real profitable part of the merger / acquisition was the part we contracted with for the Ford Service Parts. 

This caused Mike to become President of the combined company and they shed just about everything that was Segmentz.  This is how I met Mike.  I was living in Novi, MI and Green Bay, WI at the time.

Fast forward to 2005 and I had decided to leave SLI and went to Whirlpool in St. Joe Michigan.  One morning I went to get my haircut and who was in the barber chair but Mike Welch!  I was shocked as I really had no idea they were based in Buchanan.  We talked a lot and it turns out Mike was deeply involved in my son's school and he was a great expedite provider to Whirlpool.  This meant I was able to rekindle both our professional work and our personal relationship.   So, what did I learn from Mike:

1. He was a humble man and he taught me the art of humility.  While being wildly successful in the logistics business he never sought the spotlight.  He made his business better, he took care of his associates and he made his customer's businesses better. 
   
2. He taught me about giving back.  While he clearly made a lot of money when he sold to XPO he always took care of the community.  He always was there when we needed him for the boys and girls clubs, the Lakeshore Foundation and anything else which would make the community better.  He was always there.
   
3. He never forgot his friends.  While I considered him a friend I would not say we were super close however every time I saw him you would think we had been friends since grade school.  He always had time and he always engaged.
   
4. Finally, he was a great businessman.  He was an entrepreneur, he served his customers, he was proud of what he built and he always was innovating.  I learned a lot about just down to earth business concepts from him.

So, we in the logistics and supply chain world lost a great one.  While the company (Express-1) was not as big, I would put Mike up with Don Schneider, J.B. Hunt and all the greats of our industry.  

Mike, you will be missed by all... God Bless you and your family and I hope to see you again...

Read about the history in Mike's own words at this Interview by the Wall Street Journal.

Provide Ritz-Carlton Service to Your Customers - It is Mostly Free

I had such a great experience this weekend I had to, as always, relate it back to customer value chain fulfillment.  We decided to spend the weekend at a beautiful resort owned by the Ritz-Carlton company and it was fabulous.  So, how does this relate to order fulfillment - the business all logisticians are truly engaged in?  It is called service.

Many of you may be saying "well of course it was a great time because it cost a lot and you were in a beautiful setting".  True and I will certainly say I am not naive of the fact the Ritz gets paid for all it does.  However, I do have to wonder which came first?  Are people willing to pay higher prices because the service is so incredibly better than the competitors or do they charge more because it costs more?  My hypothesis is it is the former rather than the latter.  Lesson 1:  People are willing to pay more if your service is significantly better than the competition.  Not just a little bit better and not just sometimes but consistently and significantly better than the competition. 

Now, the good news is most of what differentiated the company from the competition was free or very low cost!  I never walked by an associate at any level of the organization without them smiling and greeting me.  If they had a work cart in the aisle they immediately moved it so I did not have to muscle around things.  The place was spotless - every employee was part of the cleaning staff because everyone picked up even the slightest thing which may not belong where it was.  The bottled water was free!  Small bottles of water free!  It likely cost them almost nothing to provide that but rather than leave a bad taste in your mouth about the overall experience by ripping you off on $5 for water they just gave it to you!

My wife needed contact lens solution and the front desk offered to drive her to CVS to get it.  They did not say "I can call you a cab".  They just offered to fix that little problem for us.  Lesson 2: Don't make your customers feel they had a bad experience over some very small petty thing.  Just fix the problem and move on.

I could go on and on about the Ritz-Carlton and its great customer service but I think you get the idea.  So, here are a few lessons for supply chain / 3PL companies:

• Most actions which drive very high customer experience ratings are not very costly.  They are the basics.  Make your customer feel human again!
• Train everyone to be a customer experience evangelist.  The driver, the customer service agent, the building and grounds people.. everyone.  One thing you will find is not only will your customers be wildly excited and promote your company but it will also have the positive effect of making your workplace a desired location for recruits.  Want to recruit top talent and retain them?  Treat them as customers and not machines. 
• Fix the little stuff and move on. How many times do you find your company arguing with a customer over some petty thing (Think free bottled water).  At a company I worked we provided surveys on the delivery experience and I reviewed those surveys.  One customer had rated us all 10's (great) and put in the comment field "please bring donuts next time".  I went ahead and had the driver deliver donuts on the next delivery.  Nike had the right approach - Just Do It.
• Finally, when you do make a mistake, own up to it with your associates and your customers.  No one is perfect and no one expects you to be perfect.  They expect you to own up to it and solve it.  

Well, another great weekend in the books and wow did I learn and in a lot of cases re-learn a lot.  Your customer experience will definitely differentiate you and now, in the Nike fashion go JUST DO IT!.

Kraft, ZBB and the Art of Designing Supply Chains

A lot has been written this weekend about what is happening at Kraft Heinz (KHC) and why they suddenly had to write down a huge portion of their brand portfolio.  Many articles are calling out the zero based budgeting (ZBB) program 3G installed after buying Heinz.  I disagree.  I think it is something far more basic: They lost sight of their customers.

First, a quick definition of ZBB.  ZBB was the darling of the consultant community many years ago as a way to wring costs out of bloated companies. Consultants loved it because it allowed for a lot of business ("I am a ZBB certified...), companies loved it because it had the promise of driving out costs and Wall Street loved it because they generally love all things that are short term profit boosters.  And, in my opinion, it is a good program.  It forces you to reevaluate your costs every year.  Just because you did "x" last year does not mean you need to do it again next year yet the standard budget process assumes programs and positions continue forever.  ZBB does not.  ZBB picks the arbitrary time of one year and says every year every cost needs to be justified.

The reason for this however may be what KHC and 3G totally missed.  The reason you do this is so you can reinvest savings generated from non value added (non competitive) functions of the company to value added functions or better said, programs which make your company more competitive in the market place.  Pocketing the savings or paying it out in dividends is a short term strategy which ultimately ends.  And that is what happened to 3G.  They did not appear to invest the money but rather they pocketed it.

This is also why KHZ and the 3G model relied on acquisitions.  The only way this method of ZBB works is if you keep acquiring bloated companies and implement the program with them.  It is somewhat of a Ponzi scheme.

So, what should they have done differently?  Many of you have read my writings on the customer centered supply chain and outside-in thinking.  This is the fundamental miss of KHC.  They were inside-out in their thinking as they were so focused on the drug of cutting costs then keeping the money they forgot to invest in the future.  Perhaps they felt they would have an endless stream of acquisitions so the music would never stop (Remember, they tried to buy Unilever but were rebuffed and they tried to buy Campbell's but they claim the price was too high)? What they did not anticipate is many of the acquisition targets had implemented their own ZBB and thus the opportunity to wring costs out after acquisition diminished dramatically.

There are lessons for supply chain design and management:

1. Always work and design using outside-in thinking.  Start with the customer and work your way back in.  Never start in and work out. 
2. Not all costs are bad.  You can break costs into competitive and non-competitive costs.  Competitive costs are this which deliver competitive advantage in the market place.  Those are good and necessary.  Non-competitive are those which are either excess or just "cost of doing business" and those you want to minimize.  
3. Your mother taught you this lesson:  Anything taken to the extreme can, and likely will, be bad.   Just because you have a hammer does not mean everything is a nail.  
4. Don't lose sight of your business.  Sears did this and perhaps KHC is doing some of this.  They are in the business of lightening up people's day by selling great food products.  The business is not "how can I cut costs the fastest".  The ultimate tail wagging the dog.  

Lots of lessons here and I just hope a great budgeting tool is not thrown out due to very poor execution.