The Data Behind The Data on The Housing Market

A lot has been mentioned recently about the housing market and how quickly it appears to be rebounding.  It feels as if the entire country woke up in unison and decided to all go buy a house.  Feels like 2006 all over again right?

Well, not so fast.  It is important to understand where we are coming from and what the possibilities really are.  The graphs below from Northern Trust tell an interesting story:

Home sales, while increasing are still very anemic as compared to the "go-go" days of 2006.  I would never expect it to get back to that level so those who are saying, "when will housing come back" should be asking themselves, "back to what".  Further, you can see existing sales are increasing faster which generally does not have the same multiplier effect on the economy as new construction.

Behind the numbers of the existing sales also includes investors buying homes or blocks of homes to rent.  That element further reduces the multiplier effect.  And, finally, the drag on the economy of incredibly tight lending criteria means it will be a long time, if at all, that we get back to even 75% of the growth days.

Watch this closely, it is good to finally feel good, but don't get burned with unreal expectations.

Housing - Good News Bad News for Transportation

First, I want to be clear that one month's data does not make a trend however we all have to be very pleased with the housing numbers yesterday.  According to the Wall Street Journal,

"On Wednesday, the government reported that new home-building levels surged to a four-year high last month, amid a nearly 12% rise in new building permits. "

As we all know, housing drives a lot of activity or "velocity" in the economy because along with a house comes a lot of other ancillary purchases such as appliances, furniture, drapes etc.  Housing also is a "mood" indicator because, generally speaking, people do not buy houses unless they feel fairly stable about their economic situation.  For these reasons, and I am sure a lot more, having housing move like this is a fantastic sign.  The Wall Street Journal even went so far as saying this movement may vindicate all the maligned recent activity by the Fed.

This is also good for transportation - in a way.  Transportation always gains from housing.  It is that simple and quite frankly housing is almost a singular metric for transportation companies to look at when determining the macro movement of the economy.  The last huge "boom" in trucking came when the housing market was at a froth of excitement in 2004 - 2006.

Now, for the "bad news". Housing is also right up there with manufacturing as one of the highest employment substitutes for drivers.  Drivers can migrate from construction to semi-skilled manufacturing to driving pretty easily and when construction jobs jump, drivers tend to want to move to those jobs.  Why do that and not just stay with trucking?

Two reasons help explain this migration between careers.  First, the time at home factor is big.  If a driver can even come close to replicating their driving income while staying at home they will do that.  Second, there really is no "penalty".  Most jobs and careers there is a penalty for hopping around such as loss of seniority, pay or other benefits.  For the most part (yes there are a few perks for being senior but not many and they are not highly valued relative to time at home) a driver loses nothing by pivoting to construction as they know they can move back to driving anytime they want and they will be welcomed back with a hug and a thank you.

Keep your eyes on these numbers as they develop.  If this is the beginning of a real sustained increase in construction and we get anywhere near close to 800K to 1M starts next year then the driver shortage will exacerbate really quickly.

Home Construction Will Be Muted - Bad News for Logistics Providers

I think we have all learned over the last few years why home construction is always looked at by economists.  It is probably the single biggest indicator of the health of the economy.  When people buy homes all sorts of things happen:

1. Construction materials are bought
2. People are employed en masse
3. Peripherals are purchased (appliances, lights, drapes etc.)
4. Landscaping is performed...

I do not know the exact number but my guess is after someone buys a $200K house they most likely, over the next year, spend another $20K at least on "stuff".

This drives all sorts of logistics activities - warehousing and most importantly, transportation volume.  Transportation is inbound into the manufacturing plants which gear up for the activity and outbound finished goods going to all those new homes.

OK, now we know why this is so important.  This is also why it is depressing to hear home construction will be muted for a while - most likely 5 -8 years. The inventory is just too high and there are still a lot of adjustable rate mortgages to reset in 2012.  Not a good sign.

For those of you who say, "Yes, but those staying in a home will remodel" I would say this "rule" (if it ever was one) does not hold up anymore.  The reason is most people, intuitively, know they are now living in a depreciating asset and not an appreciating asset.  Remodeling makes sense in the latter as it is much like a bank account.  However, in the former remodeling is like buying a consumable product which has no sustainable value.  People know this intuitively and will not, in total, increase dramatically their major remodeling (assuming they are sane and rational).

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.