There is No "Fast Following" in Today's Technology

There have been a lot of supply chain learnings as a result of the COVID-19 environment and there is nothing more important than the lesson of technology.  Technology has separated the haves and have nots in just about every industry.  Those companies which have been able to adapt are thriving even in this stressful time.  Those who did not have the core technology available, or have been unwilling to invest in the technology, have suffered and many have filed bankruptcy. 

As if to prove this case, look at a 4  industries and you will see they have come down to duopolies or maybe three to 5 companies which own the industry.  Think of this:

1. Home Improvement - Two huge players in Home Depot and Lowes
2. General Store Retail - Target and Walmart
3. E-Commerce - Amazon and Wayfair
4. Pure Technology - Apple, Google (Alphabet), Facebook (Advertising). 

You can go on with this but the point I am making is the companies which invested in technology early have thrived and are so far ahead of most of their competitors it is very likely those competitors cannot catch up.  Technology does a few things for these companies:

1. It makes them infinitely scalable.  Meaning they can scale to huge sizes and add little to no cost to the company.  Their cost per unit decreases dramatically as they grow.  
2. It allows them to be incredibly flexible and resilient.  Think of Walmart and their now infamous scale with pick up grocery business.  Walmart e-commerce business is up 97% YoY.  This would not even be possible without the underlying technology already in place. There are very few companies in the world which could handle a 97% increase YoY and have any reasonable chance of still functioning.  
3. It makes the customer experience far better because the technology allows you to customize the experience to the person.  You don't need to "group" people but rather, through the technology, you can customize the experience.  Someone wants to come into the store, you have a solution for that.  Someone wants curbside pickup, you have a solution for that. Someone wants it brought to their home, you have a solution for that.  Someone wants the products delivered to the trunk of their car (specific models allow Amazon to open the trunk of your car and put product in it), you have a solution for that.  
4. Because the technology is cloud based and built on the cloud it allows for the ability to grow dramatically very quickly.  Think about this:  In December of 2019, Zoom hosted 10 million daily meeting calls.  By April, they were up to 300 million per day.  

Virtually all of this are supply chain solutions which have made these companies leaders in their industry.  So, what lessons have we learned?

1. Technology allows companies to become dominant in their industry. 
2. Technology allows scale
3. Technology allows companies to be resilient in the face of adversity;  It actually allows those companies to thrive. 

And finally, there is no "fast following".  Walmart, because of its resources, has been able to catch up to Amazon but this is a rare example - in fact it may be the only example.  Those who get behind, will be behind forever and, ultimately, will be left behind.

Have Clicks and Bricks Won The Game over Pure E-Commerce

First, I will give you my hypothesis answer which is "Yes" it has.  Of course, I have been wrong before and will be wrong again but this would be my position going into the discussion.  Because of COVID19 we have learned the proper mix of "I need go to the store" with "I can wait to get it delivered". So, yes, my answer is an resounding "Yes".

I see this for three main reasons and in this posting I am going use Amazon as the proxy for e-commerce since it is so dominant in that space.  A little background on how this idea started developing.  I tweeted the following:

"A casualty of #Covid19 in the Supply chain is going to be #Amazon. With elongated delivery times, missed deliveries and massive counterfeiting, @amazon has become useless. #Bricksandclicks with in-store pick up, curbside car loading and local delivery has won the day.

— 10xLogisticsExperts (@Logisticsexpert) April 11, 2020"

The next morning I opened the Wall Street Journal to an article (Posted at midnight and my tweet was at 10:40pm) titled  "Will We Forgive Amazon When This is Over"  by Christopher Mims (@Mims, Christopher.mims@wsj.com) (May be Paywall).  The theme is the same:  At precisely the moment we needed Amazon the most, the model failed and it failed big.  There are a couple of key areas where it failed and only one could really have been an "unknown unknown":

1. Merchandising and Inventory:  This is the big "unknown unknown" and we cannot hold Amazon or anyone fully responsible for this as no one could have seen the massive whipsaw / bullwhip which occurred with certain products.  We essentially had a "run on the bank" and ran out.
   
   However, the "bricks" portion was able to respond much faster through limiting amount someone can buy, "senior hours" and other tactics (Not the least of which is just public shame if you are walking out with cases of toilet paper).  Amazon just could not get ahead of this and still to this day are not ahead.  They essentially have shut down all other "non essential" product lines yet I can still get all that stuff through either BOPIS (Buy on line pick up in store) or just in store at the bricks.
   
2. No Customer Loyalty:  The big question for the e-commerce providers such as Amazon will be whether they invest a lot into their networks to support a crisis like this or do they chalk it up to a "once in a lifetime" crisis and assume everything goes back to normal.  I think it will not go back to normal and the pure e-commerce players will lose customers and not gain them. 
   
   Take the Amazon Prime program for example.  Many hundreds of thousands have paid for years into that program.  Yes, you get free delivery but it also is somewhat of a loyalty program as well.  As soon as the crisis hit, prime customers were thrown to the curb.  By doing that, many prime customers are asking themselves "What am I paying for" and now that they have had the experience of "bricks and clicks", these customers may never come back.  I would imagine Amazon will see a decrease in both Prime customers and customers overall.
   
3. The Technology Just Did Not Work:  This led to a massively poor customer experience that did not have to be.  In fact, prior to COVID19 most discussions I have been in have always started with, "If Amazon can do... (Kind of like, "If they can put a man on the moon why can't....)".  This will no longer be the case.  No one will want to replicate this.  I think most give them a pass on the inventory issues but why is their website so screwed up?  Why do I have to click 4 times before I find out either the product is out of stock, it is reserved for first responders or the delivery will be two months from now (Why would they even allow it to be displayed)?
   
   The purchase experience has been awful.  The great technology has gone haywire and their "hands off the steering wheel" AI systems failed at precisely the time they were needed.  I found websites of other "off line" stores to be far more helpful, far more accurate and far more useful.  Amazon is going to have reevaluate this entire problem.  Their technology just does not appear to be much better.
   
4. Counterfeiting:  One item the "bricks" stores have is brand reputation.  Nothing makes it into a Home Depot, Lowes, Target, or Wal-Mart store without it being properly vetted to safety, service and functionality.  The item has to perform as specified.  Yes, there will be some warranty claims but not complete failure.  The "E-Commerce" world, led by Amazon, has had this "endless aisle" approach and they purposefully do very little vetting.  They claim they are a "platform" not a store (Although I think this is mostly "lawyer speak" so they can defend in lawsuits).  This has led to massive counterfeits, items which are displayed but never fulfilled, , items which say they will be fulfilled but it may be 2 months from now etc. 
   
   What is worse is the e-commerce players want the "wisdom of the crowd" to sort through it all, figure it out with "star ratings" (Which are easily manipulated by the very people doing the counterfeiting) and then report them.  The e-commerce people want the buyer to be their merchandiser as well and not pay us.  Bad form.  

For all these reasons, I believe pure e-commerce will lose business and it will take them a long time to get it back.  The "old guard" businesses with store fronts, reputations and really good technology have won this round and a big round it was (and still is)!

Long term readers of mine will not be surprised by this as I wrote two posts a while ago about how the bricks and mortar should win because they can do everything Amazon can do and Amazon cannot do everything they do.  I welcomed WalMart up from their long slumber (June 26, 2017) when they finally committed heavily to e-commerce.  I then wrote a post on June 3, 2018 titled: Convinced Even More That Wal-Mart Should Be The Winner Against Amazon.  

Convinced Even More That Wal-Mart Should Be The Winner v. Amazon

I have written many times about the idea of Walmart v. Amazon in the battle of retailing and e-commerce.  My basic thesis has always been this:  Walmart can do everything Amazon can do but Amazon CANNOT do everything Walmart can do.  And, yes, it revolves around the stores.  

One of my first posts on this topic was back in March of 2013 when I posted "The Battle for Retail Sales is Really the Battle of Supply Chains".  In that article I concluded:

"In the end I believe Walmart and the other big retailers can and should be able to beat Amazon.  Just like Dell could have and should have beaten Asus and just like Sears could have and should have beaten Walmart."

I concluded because of the huge logistics and retail head start Walmart had they could beat Amazon at their own game.  I also, however, posited the problem Walmart would have - the ability to innovate and brand.  Here I said:

"The problem for companies like Wal-Mart and other retailers is they are losing the "branding" war.  The name "Amazon" is becoming synonymous with on line shopping.  People I talk to really do not "shop" on line they just go to Amazon to buy what they want.  It is becoming what Marissa Mayer (New CEO of Yahoo) calls a "daily habit".  As a consumer, you decide whether you are going to go to a store or buy on line.  If you decide to buy on line you go directly to Amazon.  I am sure Wal-Mart has all sorts of statistics that try to pat themselves on their backs but reality is Amazon is building a brand which equates to on line shopping - The Amazon brand is to on line shopping what the term "Xerox" is to copiers.  If this hole gets too deep, Wal-Mart may not be able to dig out. "

Then, it appeared Walmart "awakened" and I wrote a post titled: "Welcome Back Wal-Mart:  We Missed You Over The Last 5 Years".  In this article I discussed how I went to a Walmart and also used their on-line e-commerce system.  Both experiences were extraordinary and this posting was written about 1 year ago.

Today, I have seen the future and it is, in fact, in Walmart.  I am more convinced then ever they will win this as long as they stay hungry, scrappy and focused on the customer.  In my local Walmart they recently added the giant "Pick up Tower" which essentially is an automated way for you to buy products, have them brought to the store and have a very seamless and frictionless way of getting them.   A picture of this is to the left.  Because just about everyone in America goes past a Walmart just about every day, ordering on line and picking up in the store is essentially a no-brainer.  Can Amazon do that?  Sure in the few Whole Foods stores, maybe, but not at the scale a Walmart can do it in. 

So, think of this scenario.  You "shop" on line at night after work and in front of your T.V.  You set to pick it up tomorrow at the local Walmart.  On your way home from work you swing past, you pick it up and voila.. it is at home.  So, why is this so intriguing to me?  Well, it is because there are a few external events occurring in the retail / e-commerce space which are converging and making the pure e-commerce play more difficult.   They are:

1. Rising Cost of Transportation:  Who does not know about this topic?  The way to mitigate high costs of transportation is to keep trucks "fullest the furthest" and don't break them down until you absolutely have to.  This allows for far more efficiencies when delivering to stores than to people's homes.

2. The Rise of "Porch Pirates":  This is a very interesting phenomena where people just go around to houses and steal delivered goods.  If you live in an apartment complex, it is like the wild wild west.  Between people stealing and boxes being left at wrong buildings and doors, it is a true mess.  Many companies are trying to solve this with "lockers", ability to go into your home, delivery to trunks etc. but net net, it all adds cost and complexity to the delivery system. The simple solution already exists - deliver it to a store.

3. Infrastructure Costs: Without a store network, the cost of building out a really good e-commerce infrastructure are astronomical.  The Home Depot, which already has one of the best supply chains in retail and has 2200 stores is about to spend over $1bl to build out what they believe they need for same day / next day service.  Imagine if you are starting from scratch?

4. Inability of Small Package Carriers to Deal With "Surge" Periods:  Finally, we hear this every Christmas season - one of the two major players will have "guessed" wrong and either they lose their shirt in terms of cost or they have not nearly the capacity needed to service the boxes. 

In the end, this is Walmart's game to lose and it appears they have no intention of losing.  I personally use both and am a "Prime Member" however when that comes up for renewal I think I will be rethinking that automatic sign up.  From a supply chain perspective, I believe Walmart is better situated than any other retailer in the business for the following reasons:

1. A very mature small box, big box and cold chain distribution network already in place.  They have a huge head start.

2. The ability to service an "endless aisle".  With this mechanism you could buy anything from them even if they never stock in the store.

3. Prime real estate for retail.  Any chance you do not drive past one?

4. Walmart Pay:  I have not mentioned this but the ease of paying using Wal-Mart pay is truly incredible. Also, it does not use NFC but rather QR codes which means all phones essentially can use it (Google Pay and Apple Pay require NFC which is in higher end phones). 

The battle continues but right now, due to the maturity of the supply chain, I am leaning to Walmart.