Interesting Supply Chain Events from Week of August 21, 2017

The week is over and some very interesting reads and developments.  Let me get right to them:

1. The war between Amazon and Walmart heats up with the use of Google Home:  In Kevin O'Marah's great piece in Forbes (Google/Walmart: The Brutal Future of Retail Supply Chains)   he discusses the impact of voice assisted purchasing.  While some thought Amazon had this locked up, Walmart joins forces with Google and given Google's penetration into the virtual personal assistance market this may give Walmart an edge over Amazon.  Other implications of this:
   
• Data flows directly from consumer to the manufacturer and could be the device that moves power back to the manufacturer and away from the retailer. 
• Price discovery by the consumer will be faster and will result in a brutal retail environment. 
• As Kevin states, if you are on a calendar based S&OP process, you may be too slow to adjust for what will be a rapidly changing consumer.
  
  This war shows retailing is really a war over efficient supply chains.
    
2. Lean is almost always in the news however when I see my good friend Robert Martichenko launching a new lean blog I jump up and notice.  It is called "Lessons in Lean: Lessons in Leadership" and I will not repeat everything he is writing here.  Suffice to say, everything Robert reads is worth reading, this blog is no exception and I encourage you to read it directly. Specifically, the post titled: Is Reflection a Lost Art was very impactful for me and I have taken actions in my own personal journey reflecting some of Robert's thoughts.  It is a must read.
   
3. More data supporting my previous post about leadership and being on the floor to lead and understand what is truly happening.  In "What CEO's can Learn From Their Frontline Workers", Mark Dohnalek does a nice job outlining why being on the floor and listening is an important trait of CEOS and all leaders.  It still is amazing to me how many CEOs spend more time in meetings than out in their facilities.
   
4. CASS reported continued upward pressure on rates for a YoY basis and a MoM basis although the pace is slowing.  I will write more about this however I will say we are still far below 2012 - 2015 and I personally think we are starting to get to a precarious position.  A lot of investments and purchases are being made in anticipation of macro economic activity by the Feds (i.e., tax cuts which they call tax reform).  If this does not happen (which I give about a 50/50 chance) we will find people have gone far in front of their skis.  CCJ reports tonnage leveling out and conditions deteriorating.
   
   
   

   

   CCJ Report on July Truck Tonnage

   Looking at the Net Income and EPS of the large publicly held carriers and you see that it has, so far, been a "ho hum" year as their income is struggling to keep up with expenses.  Landstar, once again is the outlier and doing a fantastic job.  (See transcript from conference call here: Landstar (LSTR) Q2 Conference Call.
   
5. The race for fast delivery of big box products is heating up with rumors of Overstock wanting to take advantage of XPO's incredible final mile delivery network.  While Overstock declined any agreement has been reached, I am just not sure how you execute fast delivery of things such as appliances and furniture without engaging XPO.  Bradley Jacobs, XPO CEO plans on being within 120 miles of 90% of the US population by the end of 2018.  Tough to find another competitor who can do that.
   
6. The Inventory to Sales Ratio in the economy was updated last week and while we had been enjoying some good news, you can see it has turned and started to rise again.  This could be due to the holiday inventory stock up, which is being reported as being very robust and then again, it may not be.  More to come on this.  

   

   Inventory to Sales Raio - Updated August 15, 2017

Well, that ends a pretty exciting week and hope it was profitable and engaging for all.

Reshoring - New Balance - Who Kept Significant MFG in US - Has Thoughts

I just listened to a fascinating Podcast from Bloomberg with President and CEO of New Balance Shoes, Robert DeMartini.  He maintains a significant manufacturing presence in the US and is one of the last shoe makers to do so.  Along with Allen Edmonds, he bucked the offshoring trend and now appears to be proven right.

When asked about why he stays in the US much of his answer has to do with supply chain.  Let's break it down:

1. Through lean manufacturing he has brought the labor content in a pair of shoes to 2 minutes per shoe v. in Asia manufacturing it is 20 minutes per shoe. This "factoid" is one a lot of people do not think about when they go overseas.  Rather than try to find "cheap" labor you may be best to find efficient labor.  This is the "best cost" versus "low cost" thought process.
2. Mr. DeMartini also talks about cycle time which is one of the major downfalls of overseas manufacturing.  You can go into a New Balance store, order a custom made shoe and have it in 5 days.  Virtually impossible if it were made in China. 

This is the sign of a very balanced (no pun intended) CEO. He has thought clearly and precisely about this topic and has found a very easy way to analyze and ultimately decide to manufacture in the US.

He also discusses 3D printing (written about extensively on this blog) and the fact that they now have the capability to make one shoe at a time.  

As a side note, I found it also fascinating and refreshing that he has no intention on taking the company public as he does not want to fool with the silliness of Wall Street.  Keep an eye on this man, I think he will grow this company dramatically.

Here is a live interview with him from September:

Is The "Final 3 Feet" The Most Important Logistics Leg?

I have talked a lot about "Final Mile" logistics especially since so many are trying to compete in this area.  From next day delivery to same day delivery to "crowd sourcing" delivery just about every retailer is trying to get an advantage over the other through a more efficient final mile delivery network.

However, 90% of shopping is still done in retail stores and the final 3 feet are the most important part of the execution of in store logistics.  Most logisticians are experts at lean and in plant logistics - getting parts and components efficiently to the assembly line to ensure a very lean and efficient manufacturing process.  But how many apply the same kind of rigor to the final 3 feet - getting product from the store room to the actual retail floor.  After all, if the product is not on the shelves it will be tough for people to buy the item they need.

In an article titled "Walmart Customers Say Shelves Are Empty" the Business Insider describes what appears to be a growing problem in Walmarts - product stacking up in back store rooms and no real system or staff to get it to shelves.  A tightly wound supply chain gets it to the 3 yard line but cannot bring it into the end zone.

Perhaps in store logistics needs to be elevated as a discipline especially as stores become larger and are managing more SKUs and product categories.  Goals of this should be:

1. Keep shelves always stocked without appearing to be stuffed
2. Keep product out of the aisles (nothing worse than aisles being used as storage space
3. Much like Disney where you never see anyone empty trash, yet it is always empty, you should figure out how to restock shelves out of the view of the customer.  
4. Have a detailed planograph for every store shelf / floor spot, have a method to measure fill rate at that point and have a detailed plan to restock. 
5. Start every day with 100% fill at the shelf level.  You will have a running start in keeping the day going well. 

The model below is a quick drawing I did on my iPad to illustrate the point:

Sorry for the quality but I needed to do this fast so I drew it with my finger as I could not find my stylus.  What the graph on the bottom shows is the level of "lean" at each stage of the supply chain from raw material extraction through conversion to the store (store room) then to the retail floor.  It is your typical bathtub effect.  We lean the heck out of the process through conversion and in distribution but then this article claims the final 3 feet is full of waste and piled up product.  

This article blames it on staffing levels and I do not know enough about the staffing levels at Walmart to either support or deny that hypothesis (although the graph below makes a compelling case) I do believe the need to concentrate and develop a solid in store logistics plan is necessary for all retailers.  No sense in having an incredibly lean supply chain if the product never makes it to the location where a customer can actually buy it.  

Use of Lean Techniques in The D.C.

A great article over at Logisticsview Points concerning use of lean tools in the distribution center.  The article is written by Carl Fowler of Menlo Logistics.

I will not repeat it as you need to go there and read the entire piece.  I will say I agree 100% and it makes the simple yet effective case for everyone to implement lean in the D.C.