My Thesis on FOMO for Logistics and Supply Chain Technology Has Stood The Test of Time

Paraphrase:  "We reduce the logistics' cost as % of GDP which results in lower costs for goods and services, which lifts the standard of living for all Americans" - Don Schneider

 

Don Schneider

That phrase, while I many not be getting it word for word, has stuck with me from the day I met him almost 30 years ago. 

First, I apologize as it has been a long time since I put thoughts on the blog about what is going on in the supply chain world.  I should have kept up with it better.  I just went back and looked at my last posting which was on January 19, 2022 and it addressed the issue of supply chain technology. 

Two quotes from that post really stand out:

"The "free money" aspect of the pandemic has also driven an explosion in supply chain / logistics technology. Again, some have driven huge value but by far the vast majority have not.  They have just been the recipients of a lot of money sloshing around in the economy looking for a place to land."

and:

"They [Supply Chain Practitioners] layer technology on top of technology and it still does not get them very far.  This is FOMO.  This is "I am going to try anything and everything because I am afraid I am going to miss out on the latest greatest thing". 

We are starting to see the realization that this technology, without good processes and without assets, is not helping very much. The aggregate outcome metric I like to use is the US Business Logistics Costs as a percent of the nation's GDP. After all the technology improvements we have made, in 2021, this cost was 8% of GDP which, according to the 2022 State of Logistics report issued by CSCMP, has not been this high since 2008.   

Source: CSCMP 2022 SOL Report

Ultimately, we as an industry have to be measured on whether we are delivering value (higher service at lower costs) or not.  This table and information would say we are not doing that.  From the same report, we can trace these costs back to 2012:

Source CSCMP 2022 SOL Report and 10xLogistics Analysis

The graph is up 2bps since 2012 (coming out of a deep recession) and has, more importantly, changed the game significantly since 2018.  Some may say is only 2bps so what does it matter and my point is you would think we could get improvement with all the technology spend we have incurred. 

Do not get me wrong as there is a lot of good in our newest supply chain technology and there are certain aspects of running a supply chain I could not live without however, in the aggregate, logistics has become more costly for less service. 

My question for the supply chain industry is: "Would Don be Happy with this result"?  I will leave you to answer that on your own.  

This is something the supply chain industry has to address and hopefully people will talk about this at CSCMP EDGE conference this year.  Engage on Twitter with the hashtag #logtech

 

  

What is The True State of The Supply Chain Industry?

As we look at the profession of managing supply chains we tend to spend a lot of time working on specific areas such as S&OP, Six Sigma, Lean, Labor management etc. These are all part of what we would hope would be an incredibly efficient supply chain. So, given all the spend in technology and all the work in these areas, it is fair to ask ourselves how are we doing?

By two very macro metrics, I would say as an industry, we are not doing great.  Lets first look at inventory.  As we all know, inventory at rest is waste. We also all like to engage in case studies of companies such as Zara and Dell (former Dell) where inventory management is legendary.  But when we look at the macro numbers, we just are not doing that well. 

The Government publishes an inventory to sales ratio which tells us how much inventory exists for the level of sales that are being produced.  The below graph shows the most current:

As you can see, our inventory relative to sales is about where it was in 2002.  We bottomed right after the recession (when companies just slashed) but since then, even with all the studies and technology, we still grew inventory.  This is waste in the system (and also explains the reason there is excess transportation capacity - especially in ocean).

Now, let's look at cost and for this I go to the CSCMP report "State of Logistics".  The key metric here is logistics cost as % of GDP.  Using the newer calculations prepared by AT Kearney it shows last year we were at 7.85% of GDP.  In 2011 we were at 7.88% so with all of this work, we have improved our cost efficiency by 3bps.  Not a stellar performance.  

So, by these two measurements certainly this industry has a "cold".  One could argue that we have become a lot more efficient but we "consumed" that efficiency by increasing service dramatically (more next day and same day delivery for example).  That is possible and certainly deserves study. However, in total, we do not seem to have made much progress. 

Behind The 2.5% GDP Number.. Not So Fast

The initial read on Q3 GDP seemed pretty impressive at 2.5%.  That would indicate things are moving along and creeping up to the 3% "benchmark" everyone is waiting for.  However, like all things, there are the numbers then there are the numbers.

I had heard on NPR that the inventory numbers seemed elevated so I did some quick research and sure enough it appears that at least .5% of the GDP number was due to the growth in inventory. Of course, making things and throwing them in warehouses is not a driver of growth.  It is more like a ponzi scheme.

Forbes said the following:

"When you remove inventory accumulation and external trade, explains Capital Economics’ Chief US Economist Paul Ashworth, you get a slowing 1.7% growth rate of final sales to domestic purchasers. Ashworth calls this less impressive metric “a better gauge of underlying economic strength.”

What are the implications for shippers and transporters:

1. The economy is not growing like the front page numbers may imply.  Things are sluggish for the most part with some strength industries - although those are not big freight industries.
2. Due to the growth in inventory, there has been a "pre-positioning" that will have to bleed off.  This means, at some point, inbound freight will slow down dramatically waiting for the inventory to be sold. 
3. Nothing indicates freight will speed up.  This slow freight environment which means demand is decreasing at least as fast as supply will be the "new normal" for at least one year. 

Everything I read and see says this slow "new normal" freight environment will go through 2014 at a minimum.  

Lesson:  Always read "behind" the numbers. 

What Does 1.7%GDP Growth Mean for Transportation?

This week the first look at Q2 GDP came in and the number was 1.7%.  Headlines were anywhere from "GDP Crushes Expectations" (Set  the bar low) to "GDP Hardly Booming but no swoon in sight".  The key factor for which headline you believe is what were your expectations to start with?  Personally, I am in the camp that regardless, 1.7% is very anemic growth rate, it will not solve our unemployment problem and it will keep our economy somewhat mired for a long time.

But, what does it mean for transportation?  I believe this is just another indicator to show demand is very tepid and will remain that way for some time.  Revisions for GDP growth in Q1 were revised downward which means my experience meter seemed to have a better handle on GDP than the experts (I just look around and talk to people - Q1 was clearly worse than people had said).  The Q1 number was revised down from 1.8% to 1.1%.  Last three quarters have been less than 2% growth in each quarter.

For transportation this translates into lower demand and while there may be a little bit of capacity issues due to hours of service (HOS), demand is going down faster than capacity so net-net we are at balance or, in fact, slightly over capacity.  In total we are seeing real overcapacity in intermodal as the big rush to get into that space has caused a huge container growth at the various IMCs.

The story from the transportation economists a few years ago was when you see 3% GDP growth that is when transportation rates will start going up.  Of course, they have now changed that tune since 3% isn't anywhere near possible in the near future so the fear game is on hours of service.

However, my advice continues to be:  Those who do not allow emotion, fear and "the government regulation boogey man" get to them will use real data to determine what is really happening.  They will find capacity is there, rates are steady and in some cases going down, and for the foreseeable future that will be the story.

Keep calm and be diligent about your data analysis and you will find, while low GDP is not what we want for other reasons, this is probably a good time to be a buyer of transportation.  If you stay calm while your competitors panic, you really can pick up some competitive advantage points during this period.

Q3 GDP Growth is a Fire in The Pan Spurt

Conference Board's perspective on the Q3 "growth" spurt.  Personally, I cannot imagine GDP continuing to grow when we are at 9%+ unemployment.  Just the simple economist in me coming out.

Conference Board Report