What Does The Ever Given Episode Teach Us?

 Many have focused on the Ever Given episode as a symbol for the dangers of international shipping.  Some have discussed it in terms of "choke points" such as the Suez Canal where when one thing goes wrong entire supply chains are disrupted.  And, some have taken it as an opportunity to discuss the topic of the size of the ships.  Have ships become too big?  What happens when there is a problem with a 20K TEU ship?

All of these are very important questions and are being addressed however I believe the question is even bigger.  It is about how we structure our supply chains.  It is about the age old debate of efficiency v. resilience.  Basically, how much insurance are you willing to buy to mitigate the potential of disruption? 

Start with inventory.  What is inventory?  As I have discussed previously, inventory is merely a buffer of product to substitute for the lack of perfect information. In fact, Lean teachings tell us that inventory is considered waste.  What do good managers do with waste?  They try and eliminate it.  

So, as we have done over the years companies have fallen in love with the idea of eliminating inventory because it makes the balance sheet look amazing.  But, is inventory really waste?

I submit that inventory is not waste just like your fire and auto insurance is not waste.  Think of your insurance policies.  You may pay a couple hundred dollars a month for a product you hope you will never use!  Wouldn't you consider that waste?  Well, not if you are protecting your portfolio you wouldn't.  

So, now, let's go back to the Ever Given.  The lesson here is we need more insurance (read: resilience) in global supply chains.  If we have learned anything in the last year we have learned things will go wrong.  Buffer stocks help mitigate this.  

The next question is whether we will learn that lesson from this incident.  My answer is, I doubt it.  Efficiency drives short term results and effectiveness is for the long term.  Most businesses will not be able to resist the allure of the efficient.  Even if in the short term they sacrifice efficiency for effectiveness most will eventually look for efficiency.  Not only are businesses likely to do it on their own but Wall Street will demand it for the publicly traded companies.  Another reason private companies will always have an advantage. 

What can a supply chain manager do?  Well, first, we can strike from our "lists of wastes" the word inventory.  Inventory, as I have hypothesized above, is not waste, it is insurance.  Second, become a story teller.  Supply chains in the age of COVID and Ever Given should be remembered for what they have become - stretched to the limit.  The mantra of "Never Forget" comes to mind. 

If you have doubt of my position look at my favorite graph (posted here for years) measuring, for the United States, our sales to inventory ratio:

Notice the far right of this graph.  Here you will see our inventories in the US relative to our sales is at the lowest point since April of 2012.  This is what leads us, as consumers, to scramble for everything.  

Let's not make it so every generation has to learn the same lesson.  Let's build resilient supply chains.  

Vacation Got the Best of Me - Maersk Looks into A Dim Future for Containers

Ok, just for my regular readers, I am back.  Took a bit of a vacation and toured around Europe for a while.  Sorry for the lack of posts and I will begin getting back to my normal cadence.  Now on to business and the first one will be the state of ocean freight.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal cited Maersk warning of subdued demand in ocean container traffic.  And, of course, I have been warning and talking about this and about the lousy economics of this industry since I published "The Sick State of Ocean Freight" back in March. An industry which is far over capacity is now launching new Mega ships and increasing the overall fleet size - not a formula for success.. unless.....

Maersk says they are overcoming the excess capacity by increasing rates.  Huh?  This is one of the few industries which, dare I say, colludes, and everyone knows it.  In fact, it is quasi legal so when you are negotiating don't necessarily expect the laws of economics to work.  We have all learned when supply exceeds demand prices go down.  According to the Wall Street Journal:

"Excess tonnage, estimated at 10% above current demand, has kept rates under pressure and all but seven of the biggest 30 players lost money in 2012. Cumulative losses over the past four years have run to about $7 billion."

It goes on to say that Maersk has said:

"Still, Maersk posted a better-than-expected first-quarter net profit as it pushed through higher prices to customers. It expects container transport demand to remain subdued this year amid challenging conditions.

Essentially Maersk is saying the customer will pay for empty ships through higher prices.  I am sure if they were under capacity and over demand they would say you will pay higher prices to "reserve a spot" on an already oversold ship.  Apparently the story goes not matter what is happening in the market place you will pay higher prices.

If you remember my multiple discussions on "Anchoring" you will see this activity in action.  They are, through these public statements trying to anchor the buyers thoughts.  Essentially start all conversations with the premise that rates are going up in some fashion and now it is just a question of how much.

Don't fall for it.  As i have said over and over again use the laws of economics, understand your lanes and understand the economics of your lanes and then use that as the starting position.  You will have a much better outcome.

The Sick State of Ocean Freight

I do not spend a lot of time on ocean freight and I probably should spend more.  Suffice it to say I know it is in a dramatic over capacity situation and has been for a few years.

Recently, I read an article over at Supply Chain Brain titled: Economics 101: Did Ocean Carriers Miss The Lesson and it really brought home just how "sick" this industry is right now.  The critical fact is capacity is growing by about 7% and demand may grow by 1% if we are lucky.  The ships are already underutilized, new "mega ships" (like the Maersk 18,000TEU "Triple - E" ship) are coming on line and demand does not seem to be growing.  Add that they have parked what they can and have "slow steamed" as much as they can (short of just drifting in the current) and I think you see this is the makings for a bad industry.

The good news is if you are in procurement for ocean freight you should be delivering great results to your company bottom line.  Oh, and those GRI's which seem to pop up every now and then - you can ignore them thank you.  They cannot possibly stick.

If you have a minute.. watch below as the behemoth is being built:

Where Reverse Logistics and Sustainability Meet

We all know the technical reasons for reverse logistics and at this point in the season many retailers loathe it.  Product is returned, packaging is just thrown into landfills and old product is thrown in the garbage in favor of the new and fancier version.  This is both a reverse logistics and a sustainability nightmare.

What is worse is a lot of the garbage created ends up in the ocean.  There are floating patches of man made waste all over the ocean and it just sits out there generally making a mess of things.

Well, fret no more as one of the most forward thinking and sustainable companies on the planet, Method, has come to the rescue.  According to both their website and this article in the Mother Nature Network Method has devised a way to take that post consumer use ocean garbage and re-purpose it to make the bottles for their 2 in 1 hand soap / dish wash soap.  What a great idea.  by using this product you will accomplish three things:

• Get a great soap (Yes, I use Method and love it)
• Help to clean the oceans
• Eliminate waste in the creation of new plastic bottles which are unneeded since we as humans have provided patches of the old stuff ready for use. 

It is very rare you can accomplish all of this in one purchase. Yes, recycling what we throw away is part of reverse logistics. 

What are you doing for your personal sustainability initiative today?

Welcome to SupplyChainBrain: Who’s to Blame for Ocean Carriers’ Losses?

Welcome to SupplyChainBrain: <font size=2>Who’s to Blame for Ocean Carriers’ Losses?</font>

Incredible that this group has allowed this to continue.  However they continue to miss the "boat" per se.  They talk about exchanging rates for service however most do not provide service levels needed.  No value exchange there. 

Overall, good article about the state of the container shipping industry.