Capitalism without Capital and Why Amazon Was Able to Get To Scale

I am currently reading a fantastic book titled Capitalism without Capital:  The Rise of The Intangible Economy by Jonathan Haskel and Stian Westlake.  The essential message of the book is how the "new" economy allows companies to get to hyperscale size because they are built on intangibles (software and ideas).  These are infinitely scalable and have allowed the growth of FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google ) to incredible levels.  Because this is a supply chain blog, I will focus on what this means for everyone else relative to Amazon. 

People constantly ask the question: How can Amazon keep growing if they do not make money?  There are two answers:  First, Amazon has proved that if they want to scale back investment they can make a lot of money almost at will.   Just in Q2 of this year they made over $2bl in profit in one quarter.  Not bad for a company that "does not make any money".  Second, and this is the most important point, they have built this profit machine on the value of intangibles.

Most companies value themselves based on what can physically be put on the balance sheet.  Something is an "asset" if it is physical in nature and can be valued in the marketplace, mostly by figuring out its resale value.  Further, accounting rules actually favor this as when you put this "asset" on the books you do not have to expense it all at once but rather depreciate it over time.  This makes a physical good more valuable than an intangible good. 

However in the intangible economy where it is intangibles which truly drive value this is a real problem.  Think of it this way:  What makes Amazon's supply chain so great?  It certainly is not the buildings, racks, trucks or even the Kiva robots.  All of those are easily replicable.  Rather, it is the intangible assets which make it great and where they have invested a lot.  It is the algorithms, the engineering solutions, the supply chain processes (inventory, order management and advanced delivery routing) which add all of the distinctive value of Amazon.  So now we can answer the question:  Why doesn't everyone just replicate Amazon?

Because their rigid and outdating accounting systems won't let them.

While others are looking to physical assets which can be depreciated and can easily be valued for ROI purposes Amazon looks to the intangibles.  By doing this Amazon has built a cash machine which now allows them to put up physical assets with ease. 

The basic tenet of the book is companies which value their intangible assets have infinite scale.  Once they get to this point it is tough for anyone to catch up. 

Macroeconomic Monday® - A tale of Two Economies

There are two economies developing and it is very important you do not confuse the two.  The first economy is the financial  economy.  This is Wall Street, investing, arbitrage and commodities.  When bundled together this economy is on a tear.  It is booming and if your business is just to make money with money the Fed has become your friend and your company is most likely doing very well.

The drawback to the financial economy  for my readers is just this: There is no freight.  There is no freight in the booming of Wall Street.  Nothing is produced, shipped and delivered beyond bits and bytes of data which magically turns into money in your bank account.

There is the second economy which is the physical economy.  This is the area where my readers and I have participated for most of our lives and this area is operating in a murky, up and down environment and is not nearly as "booming" as the financial economy.  While the financial economy, in a lot of cases, is at a pre-recession level, the physical economy is not.

Here is why it matters for us logisticians.  If the physical economy does not improve we will continue to mired in a low freight environment while at the same time believing the economy is booming.  This is why shippers need to keep a real eye on the actual physical economy and not let the financial economy sway their opinion.  Will capacity continue to decrease?  Yes.  However, and unfortunately, demand for goods seem to be decreasing as well.

You need look no further than the unemployment rate to know why.

 The graph to the left shows us in a stubborn range of unemployment.  As many economists have discussed this also does not reflect the underemployed, those who have stopped looking and those who are employed but are too scared to spend due to a fear of losing their job.

The simple fact is when unemployment is this high people will hold onto money and not spend it.  When they do not spend, their is nothing to move.  And, this translates into lower freight volumes.

This can be reflected in my infamous love affair with the inventory to sales ratio.

 This ratio has stayed flat for a while and recently had a small uptick.  We will be getting a new reading this Thursday but the trend line is clear:  Businesses thought sales would increase, inventory went up and the sales did not come.

Again, more indication of a lack of freight demand.  This also means that when demand picks up there will be a lag in freight demand as inventories will need to clear out.

The summary is simple:  While last week may have ended with a bang on Wall Street, it was a thud on main street - inventories up, unemployment up, construction spending did not keep pace with expectations and manufacturing actually contracted.

In a real perverse way, you know the physical economy is doing poorly when the market is up because the market is being driven by the expectations for the FED to keep rates low and keep the quantitative easing program going.  When physical economy results come in below expectations, the traders believe this will keep the Fed going, which will then boost the market.  If you see the market collapse then, perhaps, we will see a signal in the growth of the physical economy as the market collapsing will be an indicator the traders believe the Fed will be backing away.

What is down is up!

Get Ready - CSCMP 2012 in Atlanta

Those who have been in the industry a while know the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) is the premier professional organization for our industry.  From practitioners to academics, this is the organization to belong to if you want to know what is happening in our industry, networking with top individuals / thought leaders and keep an eye on the mega-trends occurring in supply chain and logistics.

This year I have the honor to co-host Track 6 - Energy and Infrastructure at the Annual Global Conference in Atlanta from September 30 to October 3. This track will have exciting discussions concerning the overall energy marketplace right to how to specifically implement Natural Gas and alternative energy strategies.  The track objectives, as stated in the program:

"Managing a sustainable supply chain is no longer just a "cool" thing to do; it is expected by the consumer and is an extension of the brand and product being sold. This track will highlight best-in-class practices and emerging technologies to reduce your carbon footprint, enhance your corporate image, and positively impact the bottom line"

I highly encourage you to put this on your appointment calendar!

Today, I will highlight the first session we will have which is from 9:45 to 11:15 on Monday, October 1, 2012 entitled: Dispelling the Myths of Energy Independence by Walter Zimmermann, Senior Technical Analyst, United ICAP.  The description of this session is:

"US energy independence is a goal that can never be achieved due to the global nature of the economy and the ability to export energy quickly to the higher priced markets. There is a lot of talk about building a stronger economy while at the same time lowering energy prices. This speaker will explain why we can’t have both, and why the financial markets are what actually drive energy price trends. He will reveal what can be done to lower energy costs, and describe how seasonal price cycles can be employed to lock in prices near their annual lows."

This will be an exciting session as it will challenge a lot of the current thoughts which exist in our industry about how we are on the beginning of a wave of cheap energy and energy independence.  Mr. Zimmermann speaks how the laws of supply and demand are not driving fuel costs but rather the "financialization" of the energy markets are really driving the costs. This session will really challenge you to think different.

Mr. Zimmermann is an exciting and dynamic speaker which will make this session very exciting.  Bring your questions!

If you would like to see him in action, take a look at this clip from CNBC:




Here is a more recent interview:

Operating Cash Flow (OCF) - Should it Be The "King" Metric?

In deference to the great writing at Supply Chain Digest by David Schneider (David K. Schneider and Company) I will not rewrite the premise of the article he wrote over at SCD titled "The One Best Supply Chain Metric". I will only say I highly encourage you to click on the link above and go to the article and read it if you are even remotely interested in a different metric to follow.

Now, on to my opinion (hopefully you have linked over and read the article):  Operating cash flow is a "king" metric or an "outcome" metric as some may call it.  It is the ultimate scorecard.  Are you truly making real money (i.e., Cash) or are you making "paper money" (through income statement shenanigans) and burning through cash?  Remember, the only thing which allows you to reinvest in your business is the generation of cash.  Measure cash in a big way.

I get very nervous when I hear companies want to "push out payables" not because I think it is just wrong to do but also because of the signal it sends which is their cash from operations is probably going down so they are grabbing a one time cash infusion from suppliers.

Ultimately, cash from operations will determine the success or failure of your business because ultimately you will run out of financing (of which pushing out payables is essentially that - you are financing through your suppliers) and investing options.  When that happens, if you are not generating cash from operations, you will find your "Emperor has no clothes".

What Does the Economic News Tell Us

Things are slow and everyone is in a "wait and see" mode is what I believe these numbers are telling us.  Unemployment stayed high at above 9% (9.2%) while all orders (durables and non-durables) increased slightly from manufacturers.  The question of course is did that result in sales or did it result in inventory?  We shall see as companies report their 2d qtr earnings.

In my mind the equation is fairly simple:  No jobs and no job growth leads to a lot of uncertainty which leads to consumers not spending which starts the "death spiral".  Tax cuts for the wealthy will not put people back to work as the wealthy can make a lot of money right now "trading paper" and they do not need to open factories and stores.

The real scary thing is the fact that the one economic engine which has driven even the meager recovery (if you can call it that) we have had so far is Government spending.  Now we will see what happens when the Government retrenches spending in a recessionary environment.  I think we know the answer and it is not a good one.

The Government is playing with fire and unfortunately they are going to have to be burned to have them learn the lesson of implementing contraction policies in a time of a no growth economy.